Bitcoin broke through its monthly high: ETFs and short liquidations indicate a trend change
On July 21, the first cryptocurrency reached the $66,400 mark, updating its local high for the first time since June 17. The growth is accompanied by a powerful influx of institutional capital: for the fifth consecutive day, US spot bitcoin ETFs are recording net inflows. Over this period, the funds accumulated approximately $727.3 million, and on July 20, inflows amounted to $226.9 million — the best figure since July 6.
The technical picture also confirms a shift in sentiment. Trader Jelle highlighted the $65,000–$67,000 zone as key resistance, formed back in the first quarter. A breakout of this level opens the path to $70,000. Volatility did not keep itself waiting: over the past 24 hours, positions worth $241.69 million were liquidated on the crypto market, of which $182.5 million were short trades. This is a classic "short squeeze" scenario, where a sharp rise knocks out the bears.
However, not all analysts share the optimism. Peter Brandt, a well-known technical analyst, believes that the current bearish cycle will only end on October 4. He anticipates a drop in bitcoin below $50,000 — down to the $40,000–$50,000 zone. According to him, the bottom forms on panic and volume, not on neutral sentiment. The ongoing optimism among market participants, in his view, does not align with the conditions for final capitulation. Brandt previously predicted that after hitting a bottom in September-October, bitcoin could rise to $250,000 by the end of 2029.
The behavior of large holders is also noteworthy. CryptoQuant contributor Amr Taha recorded a divergence: whales are increasing their positions, while medium-sized wallets are actively selling. This points to a redistribution of capital in favor of long-term players.
My opinion: The current growth is not just a bounce, but a signal of the return of institutional demand. However, a full recovery of the bullish trend is unlikely until the market goes through the phase of final capitulation that Brandt speaks of. Investors should be prepared for high volatility in the coming weeks.