AI vs Programmers: Kasperskaya Denies Mass Layoffs, but US Statistics Suggest Otherwise
The debate over whether artificial intelligence will replace programmers and trigger a wave of layoffs in the IT sector continues. However, Natalya Kasperskaya, President of InfoWatch and Chair of the Board of the Association "Domestic Software," is confident that relying on the complete replacement of humans by machines in development is simply ineffective. But her optimistic forecast sharply contrasts with alarming statistics from the U.S. labor market, where AI has already become the primary cause of a record number of layoffs.
Why Are Mass Layoffs Not Expected?
Kasperskaya asserts that mass layoffs due to AI will not happen. The main argument is economic: such an approach is ineffective. Integrating AI into various areas does not reduce the number of people but merely changes their roles. Instead of downsizing, there is a redistribution of functions. Programmers are increasingly writing code manually less often and are more frequently managing AI: setting tasks, breaking them down into parts, and checking the results. Specializations, in Kasperskaya's words, are "mutating" under the influence of AI, but not disappearing.
She links the sustained demand for specialists to the limitations of generative AI, which can produce hallucinations—erroneous results. Since AI can deliver questionable outcomes, humans must oversee it. Therefore, a belt of specialists involved in management and quality control is forming around the technology.
U.S. Statistics Paint a Different Picture
Data from the U.S. labor market looks much more alarming. According to calculations by the consulting firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, in May 2026 alone, AI caused 38,579 layoffs in the U.S.—a record monthly figure since tracking began in 2023 and 40% of all cuts that month. Since the start of 2026, 87,714 people have lost their jobs due to AI, already exceeding the total for the entire 2025 (54,836).
| Period / Indicator | Number of AI-Related Layoffs in the U.S. |
| May | 38,579 |
| Entire 2025 | 54,836 |
| Since Start of 2026 | 87,714 |
The pressure has extended beyond Big Tech: fintech companies and banks, including Standard Chartered and Coinbase, are announcing layoffs. Moreover, not only rank-and-file employees are affected. Ken Griffin, head of the hedge fund Citadel, acknowledged that agentic AI is already replacing highly qualified experts with master's and doctoral degrees, performing in hours work that previously took weeks.
However, Kasperskaya's thesis also finds support in the West. Some experts, including David George from Andreessen Horowitz and economist Tyler Cowen, call talk of the imminent disappearance of professions a myth. Research from a16z also has yet to find evidence that AI leads to mass job losses: changes are concentrated on individual tasks rather than encompassing entire professions.
My analysis: The paradox is that both sides are right. AI is indeed not destroying professions en masse, but it is radically changing the structure of demand, making some skills obsolete and creating demand for others. Programmers who do not adapt to working with AI as a tool, rather than as a replacement, face a real risk of being left behind. The labor market will never be the same—the question is only the speed and scale of the transformation.