Has Bitcoin hit bottom? Grayscale analysis: It all depends on the Fed.
The Bitcoin market has once again become the focus of analysts' attention. This time, experts have presented compelling data indicating that the current bottom of the first cryptocurrency may already be in the past. However, the key variable remains the monetary policy of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed).
Macroeconomic backdrop as the main driver
My analysis shows that historical Bitcoin downturns have always coincided not with calendar halvings, but with fundamental shifts in the macroeconomic environment. By comparing the BTC price with the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index and the real yield on two-year Treasury notes, I have identified a clear correlation. Each of the four significant decline periods — 2014–2015, 2018–2019, 2022, and the current 2026 — occurred during times of weakening economic activity and rising real interest rates.
When the ISM index moved downward, reflecting an economic slowdown, Bitcoin synchronously lost value. At the same time, the rising cost of borrowing — real rates — exerted additional pressure on risk assets. The current correction fits perfectly into this logic: it is accompanied by a reassessment of expectations regarding Fed policy and an increase in government bond yields.
A split in investor sentiment
A curious split is currently observed in the market. Proponents of the traditional cyclical model expect the decline to continue until September-October, preparing for new lows. Adherents of the macro view, on the contrary, believe that the reversal is a matter of economics, not the calendar. Caution still prevails: rising real rates keep many participants from active buying, despite arguments that the worst is already behind.
The key benchmark for both sides remains the Fed. It is the regulator's decisions on rates and the resilience of the U.S. economy that will determine which of the two scenarios is closer to reality.
The debate itself has shifted to a different plane. Now the discussion is not about whether Bitcoin will fall further, but about what is primary for its price — the internal four-year cycle or the external macroeconomic backdrop. My position: Bitcoin has "matured" and now trades as a macro asset, reacting to expectations for economic growth and Fed policy. If the regulator refrains from raising rates, the bottom may indeed already be behind, even contrary to the halving theory.
Expert opinion from Cryptalist: The current situation is unique — we are witnessing Bitcoin transform from a niche speculative instrument into a full-fledged macro asset. Investors should focus on inflation data and Fed decisions, not the halving calendar. If the U.S. economy shows resilience without further tightening, current levels could become a historical bottom.