Bitcoin Bottom: Grayscale's Macroeconomic Analysis Points to a Reversal if the Fed Does Not Raise Rates
Grayscale analysts have presented a compelling argument that the current Bitcoin bottom has already been formed. The key takeaway: the future dynamics of the first cryptocurrency depend solely on the decisions of the U.S. Federal Reserve. If the Fed refrains from raising interest rates, the bearish trend may be finally over.
My analysis of historical data shows that Bitcoin corrections have always coincided with fundamental changes in the macroeconomic environment, not just the halving calendar. Grayscale has clearly demonstrated this correlation by comparing the BTC price with the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index and the real yield on two-year Treasury notes.
What the Grayscale Chart Shows
The presented chart, covering the period from 2012, clearly shows four key segments highlighted in pink: 2014–2015, 2018–2019, 2022, and the current year, 2026. Each corresponds to a phase of deep Bitcoin decline. And in each case, we observe the same macroeconomic picture.
First, the ISM Manufacturing Index during these periods was steadily declining or at low levels, reflecting an economic slowdown. Second, the real yield on government bonds, on the contrary, was rising, indicating a tightening of monetary policy. It was the rising cost of money that directly pressured the BTC price.
The current downturn fits perfectly into this logic. It is accompanied by a sharp revision of expectations regarding Fed policy and a rise in real rates — the same factors as in previous bear markets.
Investor Sentiment: A Split in the Ranks
Grayscale's Head of Research, Zach Pandl, leans toward an optimistic scenario. He notes that if the Fed refrains from further rate hikes, Bitcoin has likely already found its bottom. This statement is particularly noteworthy given that the traditional four-year cycle theory suggests a longer downturn.
Market sentiment is divided. Proponents of the cyclical model expect new lows and are preparing for a continued decline until September or October. Adherents of the macro view, on the contrary, believe the reversal is a matter of economics, not the calendar.
Caution still prevails. The forecast of a possible decline until autumn and the rise in real rates keep some market participants from actively buying BTC, despite arguments that the worst is over.
The key reference point for both sides remains the Fed. It is the regulator's decisions on rates and the resilience of the U.S. economy that will determine which of the two scenarios is closer to reality.
Grayscale emphasizes that the very framing of the question has changed. The debate is no longer about whether Bitcoin will fall further, but about what is primary for its price — the internal cycle or the external macroeconomic backdrop.
My expert opinion: Grayscale's argumentation is flawless from a historical analysis perspective. Bitcoin has indeed "matured" and now trades as a macro asset. However, I would add that a "soft landing" scenario for the U.S. economy, where the Fed not only refrains from raising but begins to cut rates, would act as a catalyst for a powerful bull rally capable of exceeding even the most optimistic analysts' expectations.