Crypto news

Russian experts are divided in their assessments of how the 21st EU sanctions package will affect the domestic crypto market. For the first time, restrictive measures have impacted the digital financial assets sector on such a large scale, and the consequences largely depend on who exactly the EU classifies as "crypto operators."

Their assessments were shared by member of the Council for the Development of the Digital Economy under the Federation Council Nadezhda Surova, General Director of the Institute for the Development of the Crypto Industry Alexey Zyuzin, and Director of Product Development for "Crypto" at RBC Nikolay Zagvozdkin.

Nadezhda Surova: The market is ready for adaptation

According to Nadezhda Surova, the inclusion of crypto operators in the sanctions list is a precedent-setting step. Restrictions may affect platforms for exchanging fiat currencies for cryptocurrencies, transaction services involving sanctioned banks, and individuals involved in crypto infrastructure designed to bypass banking restrictions.

As the expert noted, the formal consequences will include the freezing of accounts in European jurisdictions, a ban on transactions through European payment systems, and restricted access to liquidity from European counterparties. Banking restrictions complicate the deposit and withdrawal of fiat funds through sanctioned credit institutions, putting pressure on the liquidity of ruble pairs on centralized exchanges.

According to Surova, restrictions in oil trade create an additional backdrop of ruble volatility, which traditionally increases demand for digital assets as a capital preservation tool. The Russian digital asset market, in her assessment, demonstrates resilience to sanctions pressure, developed during adaptation to the previous 20 packages.

Among the expected areas of transformation, the expert cited a shift in activity to decentralized platforms and the P2P segment, growing demand for stablecoins as a means of payment, an increase in transaction volumes through friendly jurisdictions, and further development of the digital financial assets (DFA) market within the Russian regulatory framework.

Surova considers the specific content of the term "crypto operators" in the official bulletin of the EU Council to be a determining factor. According to her, if the definition covers all platforms serving Russian users, the consequences will be significant, but if it only applies to structures linked to sanctioned banks and the defense sector, adaptation will proceed with minimal losses.

Alexey Zyuzin: The market will split into two circuits

According to Alexey Zyuzin, the new package could significantly limit the international component of the market, which is taking shape after the adoption of the new bill.

As the expert explained, Russian regulated participants will become more transparent and, therefore, more visible to foreign exchanges, stablecoin issuers, custodians, and analytical services, which increases the likelihood of service denials, blocking of associated addresses, and additional checks on the origin of funds.

According to Zyuzin, two circuits are likely to form. The first is a legal domestic market under the control of the Russian regulator, focused primarily on qualified investors and Russian infrastructure.

The second circuit, as the expert noted, will be a cross-border segment where elevated sanctions and technological risks will persist. In his assessment, projects relying on international settlements will be the most vulnerable, while domestic DFAs denominated in rubles and circulating within the Russian regulated circuit will be the least affected.

Nikolay Zagvozdkin: Working with crypto will become more expensive

As Nikolay Zagvozdkin noted, it is still difficult to objectively assess the significance of the 21st package, as there is no complete list of crypto platforms affected by the restrictions. At the same time, according to him, the very fact of measures against crypto companies, not in the first package, indicates that Europe effectively acknowledges that cryptocurrency has ceased to be a parallel market for enthusiasts and has turned into a major sector that supports Russia's foreign economic activity.

According to Zagvozdkin, this primarily concerns companies like A7 and its associated stablecoin A7A5. To fully grasp the consequences of the package, the expert called for waiting for the list of companies, but suggested that the restrictions will impact businesses that critically depend on regular cross-border payments.

As Zagvozdkin believes, small and medium-sized businesses will suffer more, while large companies will find ways to operate in the current situation. According to him, all regulated platforms will become even stricter in checking the origin of funds, client geography, and the connection of wallets to Russian counterparties.

According to the expert, a wave of new blocks, requests for specific documents, and service denials is likely, even for users formally not associated with sanctioned platforms. Summing up, Zagvozdkin concluded that, at least at some stage, working with crypto will become more expensive, slower, and slightly less transparent.

Where experts agree and disagree

All three experts agreed that the 21st package will increase transparency and checks for Russian participants and push the market toward a split into a domestic regulated circuit and a riskier cross-border segment. Surova and Zagvozdkin specifically emphasized that the key factor will be the specific list of crypto operators, which the EU has yet to publish.

Assessments diverge in emphasis. Surova focuses on the market's resilience and readiness for adaptation after 20 previous packages, Zyuzin concentrates on the structural split of the market into two circuits, and Zagvozdkin focuses on the practical costs for businesses that need cross-border payments.

My analysis: The 21st package is not just another round of pressure, but a recognition that cryptocurrencies have become critical infrastructure for the Russian economy. We see that the market is indeed splitting into two circuits, and this trend will intensify. Investors and businesses should prepare for rising operational costs and stricter compliance procedures. The key point is the list of specific platforms. If major international exchanges are included, it will trigger a massive outflow of liquidity into decentralized protocols and the P2P segment, making the market even more fragmented and less transparent.