Crypto news

Today, July 29, the U.S. Federal Reserve will announce its verdict on the key interest rate, and the market is holding its breath. The CME FedWatch tool shows the breakdown: 68.5% of participants expect the rate to remain at 3.50–3.75%, while 31.5% anticipate a hike to 3.75–4.00%. Such uncertainty is a rare beast for a market accustomed to nearly 99% certainty in the outcomes of meetings since March 2020.

Why Consensus is Blurred: The Era of Warsh's "Silence"

The main intrigue lies in the change of leadership style. Kevin Warsh, who took over the Fed in May, has abolished the practice of advance signals. No more hints a week before the vote. This fundamentally changes the rules of the game. At the June meeting, where the rate was left unchanged unanimously, the FOMC statement was reduced to three dry paragraphs without any mention of possible easing. Warsh is consistently removing "dovish" rhetoric, focusing on "ensuring price stability."

Meanwhile, a rift is brewing within the committee. At the April meeting under Jerome Powell, four officials immediately expressed dissent—the largest discord since October 1992. Three of them (Hammack, Logan, Kashkari) insist on immediate tightening, while Miran supports rate cuts. It is expected that today Hammack and Logan will again vote "against."

Inflation: A Bearish Signal for Hawks

Consumer price data plays into the hands of pause supporters. On a monthly basis, inflation fell by 0.4%—the largest decline since April 2020. The annual rate slowed to 3.5% from 4.2% in May. Core inflation dropped to 2.6% from 2.9%. Housing costs rose by only 0.1%—the lowest since January 2021. Energy prices fell by 5.7% over the month, and Brent returned to the $86 mark after a halt in airstrikes on Iran.

Warsh calls this gap "statistical noise," pointing out that annual figures are still high (energy +15.7%, gasoline +26.7%). However, according to CNBC, only 3–4 of the 12 voting members are ready to raise the rate immediately. All economists in a Reuters poll favored maintaining the current level.

Dollar and Bitcoin: Record Overload

The U.S. dollar is the main channel for transmitting impulses to the crypto market. Currently, speculators hold a record volume of long positions on the dollar since 2015. TD Securities strategist Howard Du warns: if the rate is left unchanged, these positions will begin to unwind, weakening the dollar. This is traditionally positive for bitcoin, gold, and stock indices.

Bitcoin is trading around $63,683, losing 1.87% over the day. Market capitalization is approximately $1.28 trillion. Over the past 30 days, the asset has gained about 7%, but it is still 46% below its all-time high of $126,080 (October 2025). Matt Hougan from Bitwise notes that the correlation between Fed actions and cryptocurrency is weakening. However, the overload of dollar positions creates a risk of sharp movement: even a small policy change could trigger a powerful bitcoin rebound.

Key Dates for the Investor Calendar

• July 29 (today): Distribution of votes within the FOMC—a unanimous decision would strengthen Warsh's authority.
• August 12: Fresh data on July inflation—low energy prices would strip the "hawks" of their main argument.
• September 15–16: Next Fed meeting—a real moment for a possible rate change.

An additional factor is the publication of the Inspector General's report on the Fed's internal spending by the end of summer. The document's summary will determine the leadership's willingness to spend political capital on further tightening.

My expert assessment: The probability of a rate hike today is near zero, despite the 31.5% implied by futures. Warsh will not take such a step without consensus, and it does not yet exist. This creates a "bullish" scenario for bitcoin in the short term: a weakening dollar and the unwinding of speculative positions could push BTC to test the $65,000–$66,000 zone in the coming days. However, the long-term trend will remain under pressure until the Fed moves to actual easing, which is unlikely before September.