Silver on the verge of $60: will the precious metal withstand the geopolitical storm?
The precious metal is showing confident growth, approaching multi-year highs amid escalating geopolitical tensions. Investors are actively shifting capital into safe-haven assets, and silver has gained more than 3% in recent days, reaching $58.92 per ounce. The metal has fully recovered from its recent decline and is now testing the key psychological level of $60.
The main catalyst for the current rally was a new escalation in relations between the US and Iran. The market is frozen in anticipation of fresh US inflation data and comments from Fed officials regarding interest rates. These events will determine the further direction: whether silver will continue its surge or take a pause for consolidation.
Geopolitics as the Main Driver
Silver surged sharply following reports of a new round of conflict between Washington and Tehran. This event instantly spurred demand for safe-haven instruments. The spot price exceeded $59 per ounce, although earlier this week there was a decline to $58. The rapid trend reversal confirms high interest in precious metals.
Thanks to the current rise, silver has consolidated above the key zone of $58-56. Holding positions above this area indicates buyer strength. However, market volatility remains high. An additional growth driver was concerns over the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, which is also pushing oil prices up. In times of instability, investors always seek reliable assets, and silver rises alongside gold.
Industrial demand is important in the long term, but the main growth factor now is investor fear. If current risks persist, the metal could retest the $61 level.
Silver Price Forecast: Bullish Momentum in Question
My models predict that after a period of rapid growth, the metal may transition into a prolonged correction. According to calculations, in July 2026, silver prices will fluctuate in the range of $45.84–57.67, with an average of approximately $51.75. Although this level implies a moderate decline compared to current values, the model forecasts a gradual increase in price pressure toward the end of the year.
In the second half of 2026, the upward momentum will fade. By mid-August, the average price will drop to $45, in September quotes will fall to $35, and in October and November the decline will continue, settling at $32. The forecast for 2027 looks even more negative: in January, the average price will fall below $26, by spring the value will settle in the $20-22 corridor, and in June and July quotes will drop to $15-17. These are the lowest values for the entire observation period.
My expert opinion: The current rise in silver is primarily a reaction to geopolitical risks, not a fundamental shift in demand. As soon as tensions ease or the Fed delivers a hawkish signal, the metal could face a serious correction. Investors should be prepared for high volatility and not view current levels as an entry point for long-term positions. The nearest support is the $56 zone, a break of which would open the way to $52.