Bitcoin on the verge of a final sell-off: analysts predict a drop to $51,000 before a trend reversal
The bear market for Bitcoin is gradually losing steam, and in my analysis, we are on the verge of the final act of selling. Data from on-chain indicators and wave analysis suggest that after the last decline, the price of the leading cryptocurrency may reverse upward. The key signal is the price behavior after the all-time high: selling periods are becoming shorter, and recoveries after them are increasingly confident.
Why the bears are losing strength
The distance between successive local price lows is shrinking. The July sell-off barely pushed the price below the February low, and since then, Bitcoin has held firmly around $60,000. This indicates that sellers are losing control of the market. In the structure of the downtrend, I see a classic ABC correction based on Elliott waves, leading to a target zone in the range of $35,564 – $62,413. The upper boundary of this corridor has already been reached, increasing the likelihood of an imminent reversal in the medium to long term.
Where to expect the bottom: the $51,000 level
The MACD and RSI indicators are already showing characteristic bullish signals: crossovers, divergences, and oversold zones. However, before the trend reverses, I expect one final wave of selling. Based on Fibonacci levels, a 61.8% retracement from the all-time high brings us to the $51,336 mark. Special attention should be paid to the zone around $50,000. Here, several important technical levels converge: the structural high from March 2022, which served as support during the correction in summer 2024, as well as the Realized Price and the 200-week moving average. Historically, these levels have marked the bottom of bear markets.
What is happening in the market now
Many well-known analysts agree that the bottom is near. Cryptollica notes that the current price level coincides with zones where Bitcoin has reversed in the past: the 2018 bottom, the reversal after the 2020 crash, and the 2022 cycle low. Michaël van de Poppe points to a confident recovery of Bitcoin and stabilization in the South Korean futures market, indicating that a bottom has been reached. He also links further growth to the Fed's decision: the market is pricing in extreme fear ahead of the meeting, but Bitcoin is holding strong, which could trigger a continued rally.
My expert conclusion: The scenario of a final drop to $51,000 appears most likely. However, this sell-off is likely to be the last entry point for long-term investors. The combination of technical levels, weakening bears, and macroeconomic signals forms a classic reversal picture. The market is preparing for a trend change.