Winklevoss advises fleeing the AI sector for bitcoin and Zcash: a strategy breakdown
Co-founder of the crypto exchange Gemini, Cameron Winklevoss, made a loud statement that literally exploded the crypto community. In his opinion, the era of speculation around artificial intelligence has come to an end, and now is the time to transfer capital into safe-haven assets. Specifically, he recommends two instruments: Bitcoin (BTC) and Zcash (ZEC).
The AI market is cracking at the seams: what happened?
The statement came amid a massive collapse in the technology sector. South Korea's KOSPI index plunged by 10.84%, triggering an automatic trading halt. Samsung Electronics shares lost 13.4%, and SK Hynix lost 14.7%. Japan's Nikkei 225 also fell nearly 4%, with chipmakers like Tokyo Electron and Kioxia showing double-digit losses.
The reason is two shocks from China. First, Chinese DRAM manufacturer Changxin Memory Technologies (CXMT) debuted on the STAR Market with a gain of over 466%, instantly becoming the most valuable company on mainland exchanges with a market capitalization of about 3.3 trillion yuan. This is a direct blow to the positions of Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron. Second, information emerged that a Chinese state-owned company has started producing DUV lithography equipment, access to which was previously restricted by Western sanctions.
The theory of "cyclical self-financing" of AI
Head of deVere Group, Nigel Green, proposed an even more alarming concept. He claims that the growth of the AI sector is a closed loop where the same dollar is counted three times as revenue: Nvidia funds OpenAI, which buys cloud capacity from Oracle, and Oracle spends the revenue on Nvidia chips. According to him, "there is no real demand here — it's just an accounting trick."
Although my own checks of primary documents show that Green's numbers are not always accurate (for example, Nvidia's commitments to OpenAI turned out to be not $100 billion, but about $30 billion), the idea of cyclical financing itself looks frighteningly plausible. OpenAI's losses this year could be about $14 billion with revenue of $25 billion, and Oracle already has a contract with OpenAI worth over $300 billion for five years. If the client starts experiencing difficulties, Oracle will be left with long-term data center leases.
Why Bitcoin and Zcash specifically?
Cameron Winklevoss is not betting on these assets by chance. Zcash has grown by about 1033% over the past year — and this is despite the project team successfully launching the Ironwood update. Winklevoss himself has long supported Zcash: he previously paid for an independent audit of the protocol after a vulnerability was discovered in the private Orchard pool.
Bitcoin remains a classic safe-haven asset, although on Tuesday it did not show confident growth amid the stock market decline. Nevertheless, Winklevoss's strategy looks like an attempt to distance himself from the overheated AI sector and move into assets with fundamental value.
My expert opinion: It is too early to talk about a complete collapse of the AI sector — UBS, for example, considers what is happening a phase of maturity, not destruction. However, the success of Chinese CXMT and the emergence of cheap models are indeed redistributing demand. Winklevoss's strategy is not panic, but competent diversification. Investors should take a closer look at it, but without fanaticism: BTC and ZEC are not a panacea, but merely elements of a well-thought-out portfolio in case of a correction in the technology bubble.