The selling pressure from Ethereum traders has eased: why this does not guarantee a price increase
The selling pressure on Ethereum (ETH) from old miner addresses has dropped to nearly the lowest levels in the past year. This significantly reduces the risk of a sharp price crash, however, in my assessment, the market still lacks a critically important component for a confident upward movement — active demand.
Analysis of Miner Flows: What the Data Shows
This refers to addresses that the CryptoQuant platform categorizes as "miner addresses." As a reminder, after Ethereum's transition to the Proof-of-Stake algorithm in 2022, classic mining on the network ceased. Nevertheless, the metric has retained its historical name — it refers to wallets inherited from that era that still hold large volumes of ETH.
The volume of transfers from these addresses to Binance — the world's largest platform for spot and futures trading of ETH — has fallen to nearly a 12-month historical low. After a brief spike in June, the indicator dropped sharply and by the end of July returned to baseline values.
Fewer transfers to the exchange means fewer coins available for immediate sale. A reduction in inflows from holders of large reserves directly decreases pressure on the market. This is particularly telling against the backdrop of Binance, which serves as one of the most reliable indicators of potential sell-offs.
Why a Supply Reduction Alone Is Not Enough
A reduction in supply from miners is a classic bullish signal. Miners (in this case, their successors) are a natural source of new coins on the market. When inflows decrease, it becomes easier for buyers to absorb available liquidity. However, in the current situation, this proves insufficient.
The main problem lies in demand. It remains anomalously weak, causing the price of ETH to stagnate in a sideways range. We are seeing an equilibrium: the inflow of new coins is low, but buyers are also not showing activity. The market is in a state of stagnation.
The key to a reversal, in my conviction, will be the return of institutional buyers. It is a new wave of large investments that can trigger the next upward movement. For now, we are observing a situation where the risk of a decline has decreased, but without a powerful catalyst in the form of institutional demand, the price will not find the strength for confident growth.
Expert opinion from Cryptalist: The current situation resembles the calm before the storm. The reduction in seller pressure is a positive backdrop, but it is not a trigger for growth. I expect the market to consolidate until a clear signal emerges from major players — either in the form of approval for new ETF products or through a surge in derivatives activity. Only then will Ethereum be able to break out of its current range.