The Fed kept the rate unchanged, but the 9:3 split in the FOMC triggered a rise in Bitcoin and gold.
The U.S. Federal Reserve decided to keep the key interest rate in the range of 3.50–3.75%, but behind this seemingly consensus decision lies a serious internal split. The vote was 9 to 3 — the largest number of dissenters in the short history of Kevin Warsh's chairmanship. Three committee members representing regional reserve banks voted for a 25-basis-point rate hike.
Markets reacted instantly and predictably: bitcoin and gold moved higher. Within 15 minutes of the FOMC statement's release, the BTC price surged from around $63,700 to an intraday high near $64,700, then slightly corrected to $64,325. The daily gain was 1.1%, and the market capitalization of the leading cryptocurrency settled above $1.29 trillion. Gold followed a similar trajectory: spot prices rose from $4,000 to a peak above $4,084 per ounce, before slightly retreating to $4,076.
Internal rift at the Fed: three "no" votes
The dissenters were presidents of regional banks: Beth Hammack (Cleveland), Neel Kashkari (Minneapolis), and Lorie Logan (Dallas). Interestingly, none of the Board of Governors members in Washington supported a rate hike, indicating that the split did not affect the Fed's central apparatus. Nevertheless, the very fact of three votes for a hike is a powerful signal to the market. Warsh, commenting on the situation at a press conference, noted: "I asked for a good family argument — and I got it." This is a direct admission that serious tension is brewing within the FOMC.
Derivatives markets, in turn, responded by lowering the probability of a rate hike in September. If before the meeting the chances of such a move were estimated at 23–30%, after the decision was published, they fell significantly. This relieved some pressure on risky assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Fed's stance: inflation remains above target
The committee's statement itself changed little compared to June. The FOMC again noted steady economic activity growth, despite uncertainty related to geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East. Productivity and investment remain strong, but inflation still exceeds the 2% target. The committee attributed this to external shocks in certain sectors, including energy, and reaffirmed its intention to "ensure price stability."
Andrey Grachev, Managing Partner at DWF Labs, rightly noted in his commentary: "For digital assets in this cycle, this is the most unfavorable scenario: tight policy, less liquidity, more expensive borrowing. Institutional investors should immediately switch to defensive positions, and higher-risk assets will suffer more. Bitcoin has already experienced a period of tight policy, but new tightening could negatively impact the price."
What's next: focus on oil and the press conference
Now all market attention shifts to Kevin Warsh's press conference and the September meeting. If oil rises again, the dissenters from the Fed's decision will have a strong argument in their favor. Currently, the interest rate swap market no longer fully prices in a rate hike in September, creating a temporary window for risky asset growth. However, as data from CME FedWatch and the Kalshi platform show, the probability of tightening remains, and investors should be prepared for any scenario.
My expert conclusion: The current split in the FOMC is not just a technical nuance, but a reflection of deep disagreements over the pace of fighting inflation. For the crypto market, this means increased volatility in the coming weeks. Bitcoin may temporarily strengthen amid lower rate expectations, but any "hawkish" signal from the Fed could quickly reverse the trend. The "buy the dip" strategy now requires particular caution.