The crypto derivatives market in the first half of 2026: hidden risks and asynchronous recovery
The trading volume in the crypto derivatives market in the first half of 2026 amounted to $35.08 trillion, which is 15.7% lower than the figure for the same period in 2025. The average daily turnover reached $193.8 billion. However, behind these figures lies a more alarming picture: the market is showing signs of risk concentration and uneven recovery.
The decline in activity was uneven. In January, volume reached $6.73 trillion, then consistently fell to an April low of $5.29 trillion. In May, the figure remained virtually unchanged ($5.31 trillion), and in June it rose to $5.66 trillion, but remained 15.9% below the January level. Quarter-over-quarter, volume decreased by 13.5%. The peak of daily activity occurred on February 6 ($480.4 billion), and the low on April 5 ($74.7 billion). The gap between them was 6.4 times, indicating an event-driven nature of trading.
Open Interest: Risk is Accumulating
The average daily open interest (OI) in the first half of the year was $112.7 billion, which is 10% lower year-over-year. As of June 30, total OI stood at $99.94 billion (17.9% less than at the beginning of the year). However, the dynamics were uneven: after a decline in February, OI recovered in April-May, but in June it decreased again to $103.56 billion.
A key signal is the divergence between volumes and OI in the second quarter. The average daily OI increased by 2.1% compared to the first quarter, while trading volume decreased by 13.5%. This means that positions were not closed synchronously with the cooling of activity, leaving significant exposure on the market. If OI continues to grow in the second half of the year without a recovery in volume and market depth, sensitivity to price shocks and concentrated liquidations will increase significantly.
Liquidations: $73.35 Billion in Six Months
In the first half of the year, liquidations reached $73.35 billion, averaging about $405 million per day. Long positions accounted for 62.2% ($45.63 billion), and short positions for 37.8% ($27.72 billion). June showed the maximum volume for the half-year ($16.14 billion), with the share of long liquidations rising to 69.5%.
The largest single-day episode occurred on January 31 — $2.588 billion, of which $2.433 billion were long position liquidations. The three largest days accounted for 8.9% of all liquidations for the half-year, highlighting the event-driven nature of deleveraging.
Concentration on Top-10 Exchanges
The market remained highly concentrated. The top-10 exchanges accounted for 81.2% of the total volume, and the top-5 for 61.2%. The leader was Binance with $9.34 trillion and a 26.6% share, followed by OKX ($4.19 trillion, 11.9%), Bybit, MEXC, and Gate. The share of the top-10 increased from 79.7% in January to 82.3% in June, indicating a flow of liquidity to the largest platforms.
In terms of average daily OI, the structure differed. Binance remained first ($24.01 billion, 21.3%), but second place was taken by CME ($13.55 billion, 12%), although its share of trading volume was only 4.1%. This reflects differences in participant composition: crypto-native platforms dominate trading flows, while CME has a larger weight in open positions of institutional players.
ETFs: Outflows Predominate
Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US closed the half-year with a net outflow of $5.46 billion. Two-way flows remained active, but redemptions prevailed. In May and June, outflows intensified, amounting to $2.425 billion and $4.510 billion, respectively. Ethereum ETFs also showed a net outflow of $1.483 billion, and their total assets decreased from $19.05 billion to $8.33 billion.
Key takeaway: spot BTC and ETH ETFs did not achieve sustained net subscriptions. Short-term inflows do not confirm a reversal in institutional demand. In the second half of the year, the crucial question will be whether the funds can maintain stable inflows without accounting for the price effect.
My Analysis
The crypto derivatives market has undergone a non-linear deleveraging process. The decline in trading turnover was accompanied by periodic position recovery and concentrated risk reduction. Recovery will become sustainable only with the synchronization of three factors: growth in trading activity, the market's ability to absorb capital, and the resumption of institutional demand. For now, we see an accumulation of risks in a less liquid environment, which increases the likelihood of sharp price movements and cascading liquidations in the second half of the year.