Coinbase missed revenue forecasts in the second quarter: losses for the third consecutive quarter
Coinbase's quarterly report once again disappointed the market: the net loss amounted to $359.5 million on revenue of $1.22 billion, which came in below the Wall Street consensus forecast of $1.29 billion. Investors' reaction was swift — COIN shares plunged 5.44% in after-hours trading, to $154.68.
During the main session, quotes were up 2.18%, reaching $163.58, but all of that gain was completely wiped out after the report was published. Market participants ignored the exchange's record share of trading volume, focusing instead on the key issue — the continued decline in revenue.
Losing streak: the trend is narrowing but not disappearing
This is already the third consecutive loss-making quarter for the company. For comparison: in the fourth quarter of 2025, losses stood at $666.7 million, and in the first quarter of this year — $394.1 million. Diluted loss per share reached $1.36, while transaction revenue came in at $599.2 million.
Adjusted EBITDA remains positive at $207.8 million, marking the 14th consecutive quarter above zero. However, the trend is discouraging: three months ago, this figure was at $303.3 million.
Restructuring expenses of $52.4 million deserve special attention. Over the previous ten quarters, this line item was zero, until the company cut 700 employees this year. Notably, even before the report was released, Citi analysts lowered their price target for the stock by 41%.
Record market share amid shrinking volumes
Coinbase's share of the spot cryptocurrency trading market rose to 10.3% from 9.1% in the first quarter — the third consecutive record. Its share of the derivatives market also hit an all-time high for the third straight quarter. However, all of this growth is occurring against the backdrop of a double-digit contraction in the overall crypto derivatives market.
The prediction products market showed the biggest surge: contract volume and revenue grew 106% quarter-over-quarter, and the annual revenue of this business exceeded $100 million for the first time. This success contrasts with the broader picture: spot bitcoin trading volumes in July fell to multi-year lows, while competitor Robinhood saw crypto revenue decline 38% year-over-year.
Stablecoins pick up the slack
Subscription and services revenue totaled $555.1 million, or 48% of net revenue — compared with 29% in the fourth quarter of 2024. According to the company, 88% of net revenue now comes from areas unrelated to spot bitcoin trading. The average volume of USDC held in Coinbase products reached a record $20 billion — more than 30% of all dollar stablecoins in circulation. The volume of stablecoin transactions on Base, the company's proprietary layer-2 solution, grew sevenfold year-over-year.
"Coinbase is no longer just a bet on the price of bitcoin. The entire financial services industry is being rebuilt with crypto, and Coinbase is the best-positioned company in the world to lead this," said Brian Armstrong, co-founder and CEO of Coinbase.
Plans for the future
The company narrowed its guidance for adjusted expenses in 2026, projecting GAAP technology, administrative, and marketing costs in the range of $4.34–4.6 billion. CFO Alesia Haas emphasized: "Despite the challenging market environment, our core metrics remain strong: we are solidifying our market position and continuing to grow throughout the cycle."
The key question for the second half of the year is whether Coinbase can grow revenue through greater diversification even amid an overall decline in trading volumes. The answer will determine not only the fate of COIN shares but also the direction of the entire sector.
My analysis: Coinbase is undergoing a classic transformation from a cyclical trading venue into a diversified financial infrastructure. However, the market is not yet ready to pay for this story until the company proves its ability to generate stable profits in a low-volatility environment. Investors should closely monitor the dynamics of stablecoin revenue and Base's growth — these are the areas that will become key drivers in the coming quarters.