$437 billion in bitcoins at risk: quantum computing brings the hour of reckoning closer
Quantum computing is no longer an abstract threat to the cryptocurrency market—it is now a question of the coming years. My analysis shows that by 2028–2029, the technology will reach a level where it begins to deliver tangible commercial benefits to corporations, and by the end of the next decade, the quantum solutions market could reach a trillion dollars. However, it is precisely this progress that puts a significant portion of bitcoin assets at risk.
Quantum Breakthrough: From Theory to Profit
Recent statements by IBM's CEO confirm that the impact of quantum systems on revenue and profit will become noticeable as early as 2028–2029. This is not just a forecast—the company has already demonstrated so-called "quantum advantage" in partnership with Algorithmiq, where a quantum computer outperformed the best classical methods in modeling tasks. For the industry, this is a milestone that was considered key, and it has been achieved.
But here lies a fundamental problem for bitcoin. According to my calculations, based on data from BIP-361, more than a third of the total BTC supply—approximately 6.8 million coins, or about $437 billion at the current exchange rate—is held on addresses with already exposed public keys. These are precisely the addresses that become vulnerable to a quantum attack once computational power reaches the necessary threshold.
A Race Against Time: Will Bitcoin Be Saved in Time?
A worrying signal came in March when the Google Quantum AI team reduced the number of qubits needed to break elliptic curve cryptography by roughly 20 times—to fewer than 500,000. This sharply brings closer the moment when current protection will no longer be reliable.
For now, bitcoin has no unified plan for transitioning to quantum-resistant protection. Proposal BIP-360, which adds such addresses, is under development, but the associated draft BIP-361 is controversial: it proposes blocking access to vulnerable addresses, which potentially affects other people's funds. This is a complex ethical and technical issue that requires consensus from the entire community.
Institutional players are already reacting. Galaxy Digital has launched the Bitcoin Quantum Readiness initiative with a grant fund of up to $5 million, and Coinbase has formed an independent advisory council. Together with BlackRock, Fidelity Digital Assets, and Strategy, they founded the Bitcoin Security Consortium with a funding pool of $15 million.
My verdict: the market underestimates the speed of quantum progress. Even if a full-scale attack is impossible tomorrow, "harvest now, decrypt later"—a strategy of collecting encrypted data today for decryption in the future—already makes vulnerable bitcoin addresses a ticking time bomb. Investors should closely monitor the development of BIP-360 and the consortia, as the preservation of a significant share of the market depends on their success.