$437 billion in bitcoin at risk: IBM's quantum computers change the game by 2028
Quantum computing has ceased to be a theoretical threat to Bitcoin and has become a concrete market risk. My calculations show that by 2028–2029, this technology will begin to have a direct impact on the revenues of the largest corporations, and by the end of the next decade, the quantum solutions market could reach $1 trillion. The question is not whether an attack will happen, but whether the industry will have time to prepare.
IBM CEO Arvind Krishna's statement that quantum computing will deliver tangible profits within two to three years did not come out of nowhere. On the same day, IBM, together with Algorithmiq, announced the so-called "quantum advantage"—their system outperformed the best classical methods in a modeling task. This is not just a laboratory experiment, but a signal that the commercial era of quantum machines has begun.
Threat to a third of all coins
This is particularly alarming for those monitoring Bitcoin's security. According to the data I analyzed, more than 34% of the total BTC supply—approximately 6.8 million coins—is held in addresses with already exposed public keys. At the current exchange rate, this amounts to about $437 billion. These funds are precisely the ones at direct risk: modern elliptic curve cryptography could fall to a sufficiently powerful quantum computer.
Progress in this area is accelerating. In March, the Google Quantum AI team reduced the estimate of the number of qubits needed to break such cryptography by about 20 times—to fewer than 500,000. This means that "D-Day" could arrive much sooner than pessimists assumed.
Bitcoin still without a "Plan B"
Notably, Bitcoin still lacks a single approved plan for transitioning to quantum-resistant protection. The BIP-360 proposal, which adds such addresses to the network, has been in development since February, but the associated BIP-361 draft is causing sharp disputes. The idea of eventually blocking access to vulnerable addresses is technically logical, but ethically and legally controversial, as it affects other people's funds.
The market is already reacting. Galaxy Digital launched the Bitcoin Quantum Readiness initiative, allocating up to $5 million in grants to developers. Coinbase created an independent advisory council on quantum computing. Together with BlackRock, Fidelity Digital Assets, and Strategy, they founded the Bitcoin Security Consortium with a funding pool of $15 million. These are the first swallows, but protecting $437 billion will require efforts on an order of magnitude greater scale.
My conclusion: the industry is in a race against time, and for now, the advantage lies with quantum technology. Investors should closely monitor the development of BIP-360 and the consortia—their success will determine not only the safety of funds but also the long-term viability of Bitcoin as an asset.