Ether in August 2026: will ETH overtake bitcoin, or is a correction ahead for the market?
Over the past few weeks, Ethereum has shown more confident momentum than Bitcoin. However, the main question for traders remains open: will Ether be able to sustain this momentum in August, and what factors will determine its price?
Analyzing the current market structure, I see that ETH's resilience has not yet been truly tested. We are observing outperformance, but it is happening under conditions where Bitcoin is not showing obvious weakness. This creates an illusion of strength that could quickly evaporate at the first market reversal.
Optimistic scenario: Ether as a beta to Bitcoin
Leading Cifra Markets analyst Alexander Kraiko expects Ethereum to continue following the flagship of the cryptocurrency market. If Bitcoin's recovery gains traction, Ether will likely show even more pronounced momentum due to its higher volatility. However, it is worth emphasizing: we have not yet seen this hypothesis tested by a decline. If Bitcoin starts to fall, whether ETH can maintain its relative strength is a big question.
"It is quite possible that Ethereum's current strength is largely related to the fact that Bitcoin itself is not falling yet, but is trading in a moderately rising sideways range," Kraiko notes.
Bearish view: Seasonality and lack of catalysts
Trader and blogger Anatoly Shpakov holds the opposite view. He sees no prerequisites for growth in either Ether or Hyperliquid and leans toward a decline. The first reason is seasonality. Historically, August is not the most favorable month for risk assets, and this year may not be an exception.
The key macroeconomic catalyst that could turn the market around—a Fed rate cut—is, in his opinion, being postponed. The Trump administration, apparently, is doing everything possible to delay this moment, depriving the market of a long-awaited growth driver.
"Mr. Trump is doing everything to ensure that this [rate cut] does not happen for as long as possible," the trader believes.
Shpakov also warns that in the event of a correction, assets will fall unevenly, and Ether could be among the main laggards.
Final forecast: Three key factors for August
None of the experts I interviewed could find independent, self-driven reasons for Ether's growth. ETH's momentum is entirely tied to external factors: Kraiko prioritizes Bitcoin's behavior, while Shpakov focuses on the Fed's monetary policy and overall market sentiment.
They see the direction of movement differently. Kraiko allows for outperformance if Bitcoin's recovery continues, while Shpakov does not expect growth at all. The final price of Ethereum in August will be determined by three things: whether Bitcoin holds its moderately rising sideways range, whether Ether maintains its outperformance during a downward reversal, and whether signals from the Fed about policy easing finally emerge.
My expert view: The market is in a phase of uncertainty, and ETH's current strength is more a reflection of dollar weakness and liquidity expectations than an independent bullish signal. Until a clear macroeconomic trigger appears, I would recommend a cautious approach to long positions in Ether, especially given the historical volatility of the second cryptocurrency in August.