The bitcoin market is holding its breath: Friday's U.S. jobs report will determine the fate of BTC
The previous U.S. nonfarm payroll report triggered a bitcoin rally, but the upcoming data release on Friday could be far less favorable to traders.
The June figures came as a real shock to analysts: the U.S. economy created only 57,000 jobs against a forecast of around 115,000. On the day the statistics were published, July 2, bitcoin jumped 4%, approaching $62,000, and continued to rise over the weekend, reaching $64,000. Market participants interpreted the weak data as a signal for a soft Federal Reserve policy, hoping the regulator would refrain from raising rates.
Why expectations have changed
By Friday's report for July, market demands had grown significantly. Economists expect an increase of 85,000–88,000 new jobs — almost double June's figure, according to surveys by leading financial agencies. Companies continued hiring in July despite geopolitical tensions and high inflation, which is weighing on the economic outlook.
If the report turns out strong, there will be no arguments for a rate cut. Fed officials have already discussed the possibility of another hike — three of them openly supported the idea last week. This configuration makes Friday's data the most significant for the market in recent months.
Bitcoin has already felt the pressure. On July 31, the price fell by about 3% — to $63,080. The yield on 30-year U.S. Treasuries reached its highest level since 2007 that same week: markets are pricing in policy tightening, not easing.
What could change the market reaction
The picture could turn the other way. If the report is weak, as in June, bets on a rate cut will return, and bitcoin will likely rise — as it did last time. The June report showed only 57,000 new jobs against expectations around 110,000, and bitcoin strengthened amid growing expectations of a rate cut.
If the numbers turn out strong, the likelihood of a rate hike will only increase, and growth in average hourly earnings will add pressure. The average wage level is especially important now — its steady growth directly affects the inflation the Fed is fighting.
Friday's report will be released on August 7 — five weeks before the Fed meeting on September 16. The regulator will have time to compare the results with inflation data from August 12 before making a decision.
The upcoming data will set the direction for all financial markets in the coming weeks. For bitcoin, this is a moment of truth: either confirmation of the bullish scenario amid a weak economy, or a correction under the pressure of hawkish rhetoric.
My analysis: the market is at a bifurcation point. Weak employment is a double signal: on one hand, support for BTC as an alternative asset; on the other, the risk of a recession that weighs on all risk assets. The key level for bitcoin is $62,000: a break below will open the path to $58,000, while holding above will create the foundation for a new push toward $66,000.