Crypto news

Bitcoin's 30-day implied volatility has dropped to 36%, but I wouldn't rush to call this a sign of stabilization. On the contrary, it is precisely such phases that often precede sharp movements, and the current situation in the derivatives market confirms this.

Cheap options — a hidden threat

The key point I see in this dynamic is the cheapening of options. As Adam Himes, head of asset management at Tesseract Group, rightly notes, low volatility reduces the cost of opening positions. But this is a double-edged sword: when the market approaches a level with a high concentration of bets, market makers are forced to hedge risks more actively, which can only accelerate the movement of quotes. With weak trading volumes and limited market depth, this creates a powder keg effect.

"Low volatility should not be confused with low risk. This is a reason to be cautious with leverage," Himes emphasizes.

Paul Howard, senior director at market maker Wincent, adds that demand for put options has weakened, and no strong bullish bets are observed. According to his forecast, in the coming weeks the market may form the minimum price range of the current cycle. Among positive triggers, he highlights progress on the CLARITY Act and institutional inflows into crypto ETFs, while the main risks remain the breakdown of negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz and a possible inflationary shock.

Bearish signals are accumulating

Analysts at Alphractal record alarming statistics: 303 days have passed since bitcoin's all-time high, and during this time the asset has fallen by 48.4%. The deepest drawdown of the cycle reached 53.1% on day 267. This is one of the longest correction periods in the cryptocurrency's history.

"The question now is not only how much further bitcoin can fall, but also how long it will take for the trend to finally change," Alphractal notes.

Analyst Axel Adler Jr. draws attention to another alarming signal: even at a price of around $64,600, the bitcoin demand indicator has remained negative for five consecutive months. In his assessment, the current rebound "lacks fuel."

Institutional support persists

Nevertheless, institutional investors continue to show interest: inflows into spot bitcoin ETFs have been recorded for the third consecutive session. On August 5, the products attracted a net $244.4 million, while $60 million flowed into Ethereum ETFs. This suggests that long-term players perceive current levels as attractive for entry.

My conclusion: the market is in an accumulation phase, but this is a fragile equilibrium. While institutional flows support the price, the lack of retail demand and weak market depth create a risk of a sharp shift in either direction. Investors should be prepared for increased turbulence rather than smooth sailing.