Bitcoin has permanently left the zone below $60,000: an analysis of cycles and macroeconomic realities
In recent days, the digital asset market has seen consolidation, and many investors are asking: has the bottom been reached? My analysis, based on deep macroeconomic trends and the behavior of institutional flows, leads to an unequivocal conclusion — bitcoin has formed a cyclical low around $64,000, and a return to levels below $60,000 is no longer possible in the foreseeable future.
The key factor — money issuance
The fundamental driver I consider decisive is the unprecedented expansion of the money supply by the world's leading central banks. Despite the rhetoric about fighting inflation, actual liquidity in the global financial system continues to grow, and fiscal stimulus remains the number one tool for sustaining economic growth. Under such conditions, bitcoin, as a decentralized asset with a fixed issuance of 21 million coins, serves as insurance against the devaluation of fiat currencies.
Demand for this "digital shield" from large funds and corporate treasuries is only intensifying. Every significant price pullback meets strong support from long-term holders, who view current levels as an opportunity to build positions ahead of the next phase of growth. The market structure I observe clearly shows seller exhaustion: trading volumes on downward moves are shrinking, and the number of coins moved to exchanges has hit multi-year lows.
Technical picture and institutional context
From a technical standpoint, the $60,000–$64,000 zone acts as a powerful support cluster, formed by both the psychological level and areas of high trading volume from previous months. A break below this range would require a catastrophic external shock, the probability of which, in my assessment, is extremely low. Moreover, the approval of spot bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. has radically changed the demand structure: pension funds and conservative institutional investors have now entered the game, for whom $60,000 represents a representative entry point into a new asset class.
I am convinced that we are witnessing a paradigm shift. Bitcoin has ceased to be a purely speculative instrument and has transformed into a full-fledged macro asset correlated with global liquidity. As long as central banks do not radically change their policies — and there are no prerequisites for that — pressure on fiat currencies will persist, making current bitcoin price levels fundamentally undervalued.
My expert conclusion: Investors waiting for a "cheap entry" below $60,000 will have to reconsider their strategies. The market has already voted for a new price range, and further strengthening of bitcoin is only a matter of time, not direction.