Crypto news

The upward movement of the first cryptocurrency is hitting two significant barriers located at $67,000 and $72,000. These levels have a fundamental basis, not just technical constructs. We are talking about the so-called realized price for short-term holders—investors who hold coins for one to three and three to six months, respectively.

The essence of these levels is simple yet critical: they reflect the average entry price for speculators who bought bitcoin in the recent past. At the moment when the market is trading near $65,000, both of these groups find themselves in a position of unrealized loss. This creates powerful "overhead pressure": any bounce to these zones provokes investors' desire to break even, which creates natural resistance.

However, overcoming these barriers will be not just a technical signal, but an indicator of a shift in sentiment. If buyers can absorb the entire volume of sales from "wounded" holders, it will mean that seller pressure is exhausted, and the market is ready for a sustainable recovery. This is a classic consolidation scenario before a new impulse.

SOPR indicator on the verge of a reversal

In parallel with this, an important on-chain indicator—the 30-day moving average of SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) for short-term holders—has reached a value of 0.997. This metric is essentially at the zero mark dividing realized profit and loss. The current value indicates that sellers are on average locking in minimal losses, which is a typical sign of exhaustion of the downtrend.

In historical retrospect, similar situations arose in January and May of this year, and each time they preceded either a local reversal or a significant increase in volatility. Contrary to intuition, a healthy market requires a sufficient profit margin that motivates holders not to sell, but not so high as to provoke mass profit-taking. We are now at that very bifurcation point where the market's decision will determine the medium-term trend.

At the time of analysis, bitcoin is trading around $65,200, showing growth of approximately 4% over the past seven days. This suggests that the "bulls" are gradually regaining the initiative, but to confirm the breakout, they will need significant trading volume. It is also worth remembering that in August, analysts recorded a record-long capitulation phase, which makes the current recovery a particularly important test of strength.

My comment: The current situation is a classic struggle between "fear of missing out" and "fear of losses." A breakout of the $67,000 zone will become a psychological trigger that could avalanche-like attract new buyers. However, without a confident hold above $72,000, it is premature to talk about a full-fledged bull market—this is merely a return to average values.