The AI market in Russia: a leap to 830 billion rubles by 2030 — my analysis of three scenarios
The Russian artificial intelligence market ended 2025 with an impressive result: growth of 29.7%, and the total volume reached 316.1 billion rubles. Over two years, the figure has virtually doubled, which indicates not just quantitative growth, but a qualitative transformation of the industry. In my analytical review, I examine in detail which factors lie behind this dynamic and what awaits the market in the period up to 2030.
The key trend I am recording is a shift in development phases. The average figures conceal a structural change: companies have stopped investing billions in purchasing their own equipment and are increasingly moving to renting computing capacity. This is a logical step amid a high key rate and uncertainty over hardware supplies. Instead of capital expenditures — operating expenses, instead of own data centers — cloud solutions.
Three scenarios: from conservative to optimistic
My baseline forecast assumes market growth to 830 billion rubles by 2030. This scenario takes into account the continuation of the current macroeconomic picture: tight monetary policy and a sustained level of geopolitical tension. However, it is important to understand that this is only the middle path.
The optimistic scenario looks far more ambitious — up to 1.12 trillion rubles. Three conditions are needed for its implementation: easing of the key rate, reduction of external pressure and, critically, the formation of an own technological base. Russian solutions must go beyond the domestic market — this will become a driver of expansion.
The conservative estimate limits the volume to 582 billion rubles. Here I factor in further rate increases, tightening of the sanctions regime and limited access to foreign computing resources and models. In such a scenario, costs rise, prices for end products increase, demand for AI services slows, and the technological gap becomes entrenched.
I view the five-year horizon differently. AI infrastructure will inevitably move to the cloud, the market will begin to consolidate, and truly large technology players will emerge on it. This is a natural process of industry maturation.
What lies behind the forecast figures
The accelerated shift to capacity rental reflects a broader state turn toward sovereign infrastructure. Domestic models are increasingly trained on internal data arrays rather than foreign sources. A telling example is the initiative to train sovereign AI models on Russian scientific developments. This approach reduces dependence on foreign datasets and fits into conservative assumptions about limited access to external resources.
In parallel, the issue of data preservation is being addressed. Large technology companies are building protection for the arrays on which their neural networks operate. The growing market is also changing the regulatory framework: the government has formed a separate working group that will determine the rules for using copyrighted content when training models and the procedure for owning generated materials.
AI adoption also affects the labor market. In my assessment, generative technologies add about 1.2 percentage points to productivity, primarily in office professions, while physical labor remains outside the direct influence of algorithms.
Expert commentary: The AI market in Russia is passing through a bifurcation point. The baseline scenario of 830 billion rubles is realistic, but betting on an own technological base is the only path to the optimistic option. Industry consolidation and the transition to a cloud model are not just a trend, but a necessity for survival in current conditions.