The AI market in Russia: a leap to 830 billion rubles by 2030 — my analysis of three scenarios
The Russian artificial intelligence market ended 2025 with an impressive result: volume grew by 29.7%, reaching 316.1 billion rubles. Over two years, the figure has doubled—this is not just statistics, but a marker of a shift in the investment paradigm in the industry.
The key trend I am tracking in my observations is the redistribution of capital. Funds that previously went toward purchasing expensive equipment are now being directed into renting computing capacity and implementing ready-made solutions. This is a classic sign of the market transitioning from the "hardware" phase to the "services" phase, which significantly accelerates scaling.
Three scenarios until 2030
In my baseline forecast, which I consider the most likely, the market will grow to 830 billion rubles by 2030. This model accounts for the persistence of a high key interest rate and the current level of geopolitical tension. However, it is important to understand: this is not the ceiling.
The optimistic scenario assumes growth to 1.12 trillion rubles. This option could be realized with a softening of monetary policy, reduced external pressure, and, critically, the development of a domestic technological base. The entry of domestic solutions into foreign markets will be a catalyst that many underestimate.
The conservative estimate is limited to 582 billion rubles. This scenario is a warning: with intensified sanctions, restricted access to foreign computing resources and models, costs rise, prices for end products increase, and demand for AI services declines. In such a case, technological lag becomes entrenched, and catching up on lost ground will be extremely difficult.
What lies behind the numbers
The observed accelerated shift toward renting capacity reflects a broader strategic pivot by the state toward sovereign infrastructure. Domestic models are increasingly trained on internal data sets rather than foreign sources. This reduces dependence on foreign datasets and fits within the logic of limited access to external resources.
In parallel, the issue of data security is being addressed—major technology companies are building protection for the data sets their neural networks rely on. The regulatory framework is also catching up: the government has already formed a working group to define rules for using copyrighted content in model training and the ownership of generated materials.
AI adoption is already changing the labor market. By my estimates, generative technologies add about 1.2 percentage points to productivity, primarily in office professions. Physical labor remains outside the direct influence of algorithms for now.
My conclusion: the AI market in Russia is at a bifurcation point. The baseline scenario of 830 billion rubles is not just a forecast, but a challenge: can the industry consolidate and create real technological leaders, or will we see fragmentation and stagnation? Investors should closely monitor the shift toward capacity rental—it is an indicator of maturity that often precedes explosive growth.