The AI market in Russia: a leap to 830 billion rubles by 2030 — my analysis
The Russian artificial intelligence market is demonstrating impressive momentum: by the end of 2025, it grew by 29.7%, reaching 316.1 billion rubles. Over the past two years, the market has doubled in size—this is not just statistics, but a marker of deep structural changes that I observe in the industry.
Behind the average figures lies a shift in development phases. Funds that were previously directed toward purchasing expensive equipment are now increasingly flowing into renting computing capacity and implementing ready-made solutions. This indicates market maturity: businesses have stopped "reinventing the wheel" and have focused on the practical monetization of AI.
Three scenarios until 2030
My baseline forecast, based on the current macroeconomic environment, assumes market growth to 830 billion rubles by 2030. This scenario takes into account the persistence of a high key rate and the current level of geopolitical tension. However, this is only a starting point.
The optimistic scenario raises the bar to 1.12 trillion rubles. This scenario could be realized with an accelerated reduction in the key rate, easing geopolitical risks, and—critically—the formation of an indigenous technological base. I consider the key condition to be the expansion of domestic solutions beyond the internal market—without expansion into foreign markets, growth will be limited.
The conservative estimate, in turn, caps the volume at 582 billion rubles. This scenario is based on a rise in the key rate, increased sanctions pressure, and limited access to foreign computing resources, infrastructure, and models. In such a case, costs rise, prices for end products increase, demand for AI services falls, and the technological gap becomes entrenched.
From a long-term perspective, I expect that AI infrastructure will gradually move to the cloud, the market will begin to consolidate, and truly major technology players will emerge in the industry. This is a natural evolutionary process for any mature market.
What lies behind the forecast figures
The accelerated shift toward renting capacity reflects a broader state pivot toward sovereign infrastructure. Domestic models are increasingly trained on internal data arrays rather than foreign sources. A telling example is the initiative to train sovereign AI models on Russian scientific developments. This approach reduces dependence on foreign datasets and fits within conservative assumptions about limited access to external resources.
In parallel, the issue of data security is being addressed. Major technology companies are building protection for the data arrays on which their neural networks operate. Market growth is also reshaping the regulatory framework: the government has formed a dedicated working group that will define rules for using copyrighted content in model training and the order of ownership of generated materials.
AI adoption also affects the labor market. According to Sber's estimates, generative technologies add 1.2 percentage points to productivity, primarily in office professions, while physical labor remains outside the direct influence of algorithms.
My verdict: the Russian AI market is at a bifurcation point. The baseline scenario of 830 billion rubles looks realistic, but achieving the optimistic level of 1.12 trillion will require synergy between state policy, private investment, and export potential. Investors should closely monitor the dynamics of the key rate and the development of domestic infrastructure—these factors will be decisive for the entire technology sector.