The AI market in Russia: rapid growth to 830 billion rubles by 2030
The Russian artificial intelligence market is undergoing a phase of active transformation. By the end of 2025, its volume grew by 29.7% and reached 316.1 billion rubles. Over two years, this figure has doubled, indicating a systemic shift in the economy—from pilot projects to large-scale industrial implementation.
However, behind the average figures lies a structural reorganization. Funds that were previously directed toward purchasing expensive equipment are now increasingly going toward renting computing power and integrating ready-made solutions. This is a classic sign of market maturity: businesses are no longer investing in "hardware" for prestige and are starting to calculate the economic efficiency of each implemented algorithm.
Three scenarios up to 2030
My baseline forecast, based on the current macroeconomic environment, assumes the maintenance of a high key rate and the existing level of geopolitical tension. In this case, the market will organically grow to 830 billion rubles by 2030.
The optimistic scenario paints a rosier picture—up to 1.12 trillion rubles. It is achievable provided there is a softening of monetary policy, a reduction in external pressure, and, critically, the emergence of truly competitive domestic technological solutions capable of expanding beyond the domestic market.
The conservative estimate limits the volume to 582 billion rubles. This option implies tightened sanctions, limited access to foreign computing resources and models. Under such developments, costs rise, prices for end products increase, demand for AI services slows, and the technological gap could become entrenched for years.
It is worth noting that AI infrastructure is gradually migrating to the cloud, the market will begin to consolidate, and truly major technology players will emerge in the industry. This is a natural evolutionary process that we have already observed in other mature markets.
Hidden drivers and risks
The accelerated shift toward renting computing power reflects a broader state turn toward sovereign infrastructure. Domestic models are increasingly trained on internal data sets rather than foreign sources. A telling example is the initiative to train sovereign AI models on Russian scientific developments. This approach reduces dependence on foreign datasets.
In parallel, the issue of data security is being addressed: major technology companies are building protection for the data arrays on which their neural networks operate. The growing market is also reshaping the regulatory framework—working groups are being formed to define rules for using copyrighted content in model training and the ownership of generated materials.
Implementation is also affecting the labor market. Generative technologies add 1.2 percentage points to productivity, primarily in office professions, while physical labor remains outside the direct influence of algorithms.
My conclusion: the AI market in Russia is passing the point of no return. The baseline scenario of 830 billion rubles looks quite achievable, but the key factor will not be the Central Bank's rate, but the speed of building our own technological base. Without it, we risk getting stuck in the conservative scenario for years to come.