Bitcoin network activity has collapsed to 2018 lows: a bottom signal or false hope?
The Bitcoin network is showing a worrying trend: the number of active addresses has dropped to levels last seen during the deep bear phase of 2018-2019. This is a key on-chain indicator that I closely track in my analysis, and its current values demand close attention.
According to my calculations, the 30-day moving average (EMA30) of active addresses fell to 609,688 on July 19, 2026, only slightly above the low of 570,710 recorded in July 2018. Even more tellingly, the 100-day average (EMA100) reached 621,957 on July 27, while in January 2019 this figure stood at 605,433. In essence, we have returned to network activity levels characteristic of the final stage of the previous bear cycle.
Comparison with the historical cycle
It is important to understand: active addresses are unique wallets that have made at least one transaction per day. One user can control multiple addresses, so this metric does not equal the number of network participants. Nevertheless, its dynamics are a powerful indicator of engagement and real blockchain usage.
My comparison with the past cycle reveals an interesting anomaly. When Bitcoin reached its price bottom of $3,206 on December 14, 2018, both moving averages were above current values—at 625,967 and 632,754, respectively. Moreover, activity lows did not coincide with the price bottom: EMA30 hit its minimum 166 days before it, and EMA100 44 days after. This suggests that there is no direct synchronization between the decline in activity and the reversal of the exchange rate.
Where the market stands now
The price bottom of the current period came at $58,535 (June 30, 2026). Interestingly, activity lows followed it 19 and 27 days later, respectively, after which both averages turned upward. By August 8, they had risen to 664,764 and 640,603.
I describe the current picture as a "joint recovery": the price holds above the June low, and both moving averages are above their July levels. This aligns with the hypothesis of a price bottom forming, although the historical comparison does not prove it.
To confirm this hypothesis, three levels are critical: above 609,688 the recovery of 30-day activity holds, above 621,957 that of the 100-day average, and the price of $58,535 remains the period's low. A break below one of the activity lows would only invalidate the corresponding part of the recovery. The deeper 2018-2019 values will remain a historical reference point, not a calculated target. A close below $58,535 would separately refute the price bottom hypothesis.
My verdict: For now, the data points to a possible bottom-forming structure, not an independent buy signal. I advise investors not to interpret current levels as an unambiguous bullish signal—the historical analogy sets a benchmark but does not guarantee a reversal. Watch for the holding of key levels, and only then can we talk about a trend change.