Is Bitcoin finding a bottom? Network activity has collapsed to 2018 lows
The Bitcoin network is showing a level of activity last seen at the height of the 2018–2019 bear cycle. This is a worrying signal that raises questions about the depth of the current correction and how close we are to forming a long-term bottom.
My calculations based on network data show that the 30-day moving average (EMA30) of active addresses fell to 609,688 on July 19, 2026. For comparison, in July 2018, this figure stood at 570,710. A similar picture emerges with the 100-day average (EMA100): 621,957 on July 27 versus 605,433 in January 2019. These numbers are not just statistics—they reflect a real decline in on-chain activity, indicating extremely low interest in using the network from both retail and institutional players.
Comparison with the previous cycle: parallels and divergences
Conducting a retrospective analysis, I compared the current lows with the final phase of the previous bear market. When Bitcoin's price bottomed at $3,206 on December 14, 2018, both moving averages held significantly above today's levels—625,967 and 632,754, respectively. However, there was no direct synchronization then: the EMA30 low was recorded 166 days before the price bottom, while the EMA100 low came 44 days after. This is an important observation: network activity is not a leading indicator of a price reversal.
It is worth noting that similar activity levels also occurred during the 2016–2017 bull rally. This suggests that the absolute value of this metric is not tied to price lows and cannot serve as a standalone signal for entering a position.
Where the market stands now
The price bottom of the current period came at $58,535 (June 30, 2026). Activity lows followed 19 and 27 days later, respectively, after which both averages turned upward and by August 8 had risen to 664,764 and 640,603. I view this as a "joint recovery": the price holds above its June low, and both moving averages are above their July values. This combination aligns with the hypothesis of a price bottom forming, although historical analogy does not prove it.
To confirm this hypothesis, three levels are critical: the 30-day activity recovering above 609,688, the 100-day above 621,957, and the price holding above $58,535. A break below one of the activity lows would only invalidate the corresponding part of the recovery, but the deeper 2018–2019 values remain a historical reference point, not a calculated target. A close below $58,535 would separately refute the bottom hypothesis.
My conclusion: the current dynamics point to a possible bottom structure forming, but I would not recommend viewing this as a standalone buy signal. The market is more likely preparing for a reversal than having already reversed. Confirmation will come from sustained growth in activity and the price holding above key levels. Until then, any analogy with 2018 is merely a reference point, not a guide to action.