August 12 — a crossroads for bitcoin: why the US inflation report will decide the fate of the market
This week, the crypto market is frozen in anticipation of a key macroeconomic trigger — the release of US inflation data for July, which will take place on August 12. This report will be the main event of the month for bitcoin, determining whether the first cryptocurrency can hold above the $70,000 mark or whether we face another wave of correction. The question is pressing: will the Fed raise interest rates as early as September?
The labor market has cracked
The starting point for revising expectations was fresh US employment data. In July, the American economy lost 23,000 jobs, although the market had forecast growth. Unemployment meanwhile fell to 4.1%, but the key signal lies in the revision of previous figures: the combined data for May and June were downgraded by approximately 103,000 jobs. This is no longer a one-off glitch, but a steady cooling of the labor market. As a result, the probability of a September rate hike has collapsed from 55% to 41%.
Three scenarios for inflation
The consensus forecast for July inflation is around 3.4% year-on-year, with a core reading of approximately 2.2%. However, an additional risk is tied to oil: the sharp slowdown in gasoline prices in June helped lower inflation, but by July the fuel factor had become unstable again. I highlight three possible scenarios for how events may unfold:
• Below forecast. Bond yields will move lower, and the most sensitive to this will be the technology sector and cryptocurrencies — for them, this is a positive signal.
• Within expectations (~3.4%). Short-term volatility without a change in the overall picture; the chances of a September hike will remain balanced.
• Acceleration to 3.5–3.6% and above. The market will return to expectations of tightening, yields will rise, and expensive assets, including bitcoin, will come under pressure.
The worst combination for the regulator is a weak labor market alongside high inflation. Raising rates under such conditions is dangerous for the economy, but ignoring rising prices is impossible. The historical correlation here is clear: when inflation data came in below forecasts (as in February, April, and July), markets received support — the Nasdaq gained more than a percent, and bitcoin rose from $62,000–63,000 above $64,000. Conversely, exceeding expectations on May 12 led to higher yields and pressure on cryptocurrencies.
The balance of forces for the week
The geopolitical backdrop is also adding tension. Brent oil has returned to $83, while WTI is consolidating above $75 amid risks in the Strait of Hormuz. In the corporate sector, SpaceX stands out: shares rebounded sharply after a two-day decline, but fundamentally the company remains unprofitable — capital expenditures reach $18.4 billion, and negative free cash flow persists. This sets the stage for a correction of 10–15% into the $108–114 zone.
As for bitcoin, I view the current bounce as a false rally. Accumulation of liquidity above, the return of local confidence, and then a new wave of decline toward $60,000 and below — this is a likely scenario under strong pressure. My position: short in the $65,000 area, waiting for confirmation of momentum stalling and the formation of resistance.
My conclusion: August 12 is not just another piece of statistics, but a crossroads that will set the trend for the entire month of September. If inflation surprises to the downside, bitcoin will get a chance to break toward $70,000. But with accelerating price pressure, the market faces a deep correction, and current optimism may prove premature. Investors should prepare for heightened volatility — in both stocks and cryptocurrencies.