Bitcoin network activity has crashed to 2018 lows: a bottom signal or false hope?
The number of active addresses on the Bitcoin network has collapsed to levels last seen during the deep bear phase of 2018–2019. This is a worrying marker that I closely track in my analytical models. According to my calculations, the 30-day moving average (EMA30) for this metric dropped to 609,688 on July 19, 2026, only slightly above the low of 570,710 recorded in July 2018. Even more telling is the value of the 100-day moving average (EMA100), which stood at 621,957 on July 27, compared to 605,433 in January 2019. In essence, we are witnessing a return to extremely low on-chain activity, which historically preceded a market reversal.
Comparison with the previous cycle: timing does not align
The key question is whether the current drop in activity is a direct precursor to forming a bottom. My analysis of data from the previous cycle shows that there was no direct synchronization. When the Bitcoin price hit its historical low of $3,206 on December 14, 2018, both moving averages were above current values—at 625,967 and 632,754, respectively. Meanwhile, the low of the 30-day average was reached 166 days before the price bottom, while the peak decline of the 100-day average occurred 44 days after it. This suggests that network activity is not an independent timing indicator—it merely reflects the overall state of the market but does not dictate reversal moments.
Current picture: recovery has begun
In the current cycle, the price bottom was recorded on June 30, 2026, at $58,535. Notably, activity lows followed it with a lag of 19 and 27 days, respectively, after which both averages turned upward. By August 8, EMA30 had risen to 664,764, and EMA100 to 640,603. This looks like a joint recovery: the price holds above the June low, and on-chain metrics confirm the return of participants. However, as I have noted, historical analogy is not proof—it only sets a benchmark for comparison.
Currently, three levels are critical for confirming the hypothesis of a bottom formation: EMA30 holding above 609,688, EMA100 above 621,957, and the price above $58,535. A break of any of these would invalidate the current scenario. So far, the data points to a possible bottom structure, but I do not view this as an independent buy signal—too many variables remain outside on-chain analysis.
My expert opinion: The market is in a consolidation phase, and low activity is more a sign of waiting than capitulation. Investors should monitor transaction volume in conjunction with the price, rather than relying on a single metric. Only confirmation of both factors will provide a confident entry signal.