August 12 — the day that will decide bitcoin’s fate: why the inflation report matters more than all the month’s news
The release of July U.S. inflation statistics, scheduled for August 12, will be a key trigger for the entire financial market. These figures will determine whether the Federal Reserve decides to raise rates as early as September, and whether Bitcoin can break through the psychologically important level of $70,000.
The market is in a state of heightened uncertainty. Fresh employment data has thrown investor expectations into significant disarray. In July, the U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs, although the consensus forecast had predicted growth. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, but the key signal was a massive downward revision of May and June data—combined figures were worsened by approximately 103,000 jobs. This is no longer a one-off glitch, but a sustained trend of a cooling labor market.
The reaction was swift: the probability of a September rate hike collapsed from 55% to 41%. The market is pricing in a softer stance from the regulator, but the final verdict will be delivered by the consumer price data.
Three scenarios for the market
The consensus forecast for July inflation is around 3.4% year-over-year, with a core reading of 2.2%. I see three possible paths forward, each of which would dramatically shift the balance of power:
• Below-forecast scenario. Bond yields would move lower, acting as a powerful catalyst for the technology sector and cryptocurrencies. In this case, Bitcoin would get a chance for a decisive push above $64,000 and a test of the $70,000 zone.
• Matching expectations (around 3.4%). Short-term volatility without a change in the overall picture. The odds of a September hike would remain balanced, and the market would stay in a state of limbo.
• Acceleration to 3.5–3.6% and higher. The market would instantly revert to tightening expectations. Yields would spike, putting pressure on both expensive tech stocks and cryptocurrencies.
The historical correlation here is clear. In February, April, and July, data came in below forecasts and supported markets: after the July report, the Nasdaq gained more than a percent, and Bitcoin rose from $62,000–63,000 to above $64,000. Conversely, on May 12, inflation exceeded expectations, leading to rising yields and significant pressure on cryptocurrencies.
Oil, SpaceX, and Bitcoin: the lineup for the week
Middle East. The geopolitical factor remains in force. Iran continues to insist on the lifting of sanctions, while Saudi Arabia warns of the risk of new attacks. Oil has already reacted: Brent has returned to the $83 area, and WTI is consolidating above $75. On a pullback to $74, I am considering a long position, targeting a move of 8–10%.
SpaceX. Shares rebounded sharply after a two-day decline, although around 911 million unlocked shares hit the market—more than the initial free float after the IPO. The reason for the rebound is pre-priced sell-off expectations, short covering, and a strong quarterly report with revenue of $7.8 billion. However, capital expenditures amounted to roughly $18.4 billion, free cash flow remains negative, and the space segment is unprofitable. The unlock is not complete: the next tranche is scheduled in 70 days. Here, I see potential for a short position, targeting a 10–15% correction into the $108–114 zone.
Bitcoin. I interpret the current rebound as a false rally. Liquidity accumulation above, a return of local confidence, and then a new wave of decline toward $60,000 and below under strong pressure. I have already fully closed my long from the $58,000 area and am looking for a short entry point in the $65,000 zone. The trigger will be a halt in momentum, the formation of resistance, and confirmation of seller pressure. From Monday through Wednesday, ahead of the inflation data release, I forecast heightened volatility in both stocks and cryptocurrencies, with the stock market seeing more pronounced moves.
My conclusion: August 12 is not just another statistical release. It is a moment of truth for the entire risk asset spectrum. If inflation comes in below forecast, Bitcoin will get fuel for a push toward $70,000. If the figures disappoint—prepare for a deep correction. The market is frozen in anticipation, and the stakes are higher than ever.