Bitcoin network activity has collapsed to 2018 lows: a signal for a reversal or false hope?
The Bitcoin network is showing a worrying trend: the number of active addresses has dropped to levels last seen during the deep bear market of 2018–2019. According to my analysis of network data, the 30-day moving average (EMA30) fell to 609,688 active addresses as of July 19, 2026, only slightly above the low of 570,710 recorded in July 2018. The picture is similar for the 100-day average (EMA100): 621,957 addresses on July 27 versus 605,433 in January 2019.
What does this decline mean?
Active addresses are unique wallets that have made at least one transaction in a day. It is important to understand: one user can control multiple addresses, so this metric does not equal the number of network participants. Nevertheless, such low activity points to extremely weak interest in using the network and, as a result, a lack of new user inflow.
Comparison with the previous cycle raises questions. In December 2018, when Bitcoin hit its historical bottom of $3,206, both moving averages were at higher levels: EMA30 — 625,967, EMA100 — 632,754. At the same time, activity lows did not coincide with the price bottom: EMA30 reached its minimum 166 days before it, and EMA100 — 44 days after. This suggests there is no direct synchronization between the decline in activity and a trend reversal.
Current situation: is a bottom forming?
The price low of the current period came in at $58,535 (June 30, 2026). Interestingly, activity lows followed it with a lag of 19 and 27 days, after which both averages turned upward and by August 8 had risen to 664,764 and 640,603, respectively. Such a "joint recovery" of price and network metrics looks encouraging and may indicate the formation of a price bottom.
However, there is an important nuance here. The drop in activity to 2018 levels is not an independent buy signal. It is more of a historical reference point that sets the framework for comparison, but does not guarantee a reversal. A break below the $58,535 level would completely refute the bottom hypothesis, while a close above July's activity lows would only confirm the current recovery.
My view: The market is in a phase of cautious recovery, but relying solely on the active addresses metric would be a mistake. Right now, it is important to watch whether the price holds above the June low and whether activity can continue to grow. Only a combination of these factors will provide confidence that we are truly seeing a bottom forming, rather than a temporary pause before a new round of decline.