Activity in the Bitcoin network has plummeted to 2018 lows — a signal for a reversal or false hope?
Bitcoin's on-chain metrics have once again caught analysts' attention: the number of active addresses on the leading cryptocurrency's blockchain has plunged to levels last seen at the bottom of the 2018–2019 bear market. This refers to moving averages, which smooth out daily fluctuations and provide a more objective picture of the long-term trend.
According to my calculations, the 30-day exponential moving average (EMA) of active addresses fell to 609,688 on July 19, 2026. For comparison, in July 2018, this metric stood at 570,710. The 100-day EMA shows even more telling dynamics—621,957 on July 27 versus 605,433 in January 2019. These figures suggest that current network activity is comparable to a period of deep capitulation when BTC was trading near its historical lows.
Historical Parallel: What Happened Last Time
It is important to note that in December 2018, when bitcoin hit its bottom at $3,206, both moving averages held significantly above current levels—625,967 and 632,754, respectively. This indicates that activity lows did not coincide in time with the price bottom. Moreover, the 30-day EMA reached its minimum 166 days before the price reversal, while the 100-day EMA did so 44 days later. There was no direct synchronization between the drop in activity and the reversal of the exchange rate.
Interestingly, similar activity levels were also observed during the 2016–2017 bull rally. This suggests that the absolute value of active addresses is not, by itself, a reliable indicator for identifying a bottom. It can serve only as a reference point for comparison, but it does not provide a buy signal.
Current Situation: Recovery or False Breakout?
The price bottom of the current period occurred at $58,535 (June 30, 2026). Activity lows followed 19 and 27 days later, respectively, after which both moving averages turned upward. By August 8, the metrics had risen to 664,764 and 640,603, allowing for talk of a kind of "joint consolidation": the price holds above the June low, and activity remains above July levels.
To confirm the hypothesis of a price bottom forming, three levels are critical: maintaining the 30-day EMA above 609,688, the 100-day EMA above 621,957, and holding the price above $58,535. A break below any of these lows would call the reversal scenario into question. However, as history shows, these levels by themselves do not guarantee the start of a bull trend.
My conclusion: the current dynamics of network activity are more a reflection of the overall market cooling than a direct harbinger of a reversal. Investors should view these data as part of a comprehensive analysis rather than as a standalone signal. A close below $58,535 would be a clear refutation of the bottom hypothesis, while sustained growth in activity above July lows could become the first building block in the foundation of a new upward cycle. But for now, the market remains in a zone of uncertainty, and it is wiser to exercise caution.