The US inflation report will decide bitcoin's fate: why August 12 is the key date of the month
August 12 will become a bifurcation point for the entire crypto market. The release of July US inflation data will determine whether the Federal Reserve decides to raise the key interest rate as early as September. It is directly on this decision that whether Bitcoin can hold above the $70,000 mark or whether we will see another wave of downward correction depends.
In focus are the recent statements by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, which have already managed to stir the market. If inflationary pressure continues to accelerate, a September tightening of monetary policy becomes almost guaranteed. However, fresh labor market statistics have made significant adjustments to these expectations.
Labor market cools: rates in question
The July employment report came in weaker than forecasts: the US economy lost 23,000 jobs instead of the expected gain, while unemployment fell to 4.1%. But a far more alarming signal was the revision of data for May and June — the cumulative deterioration amounted to about 103,000 jobs. This is not a one-off glitch, but a sustained trend toward cooling in the labor market. As a result, the probability of a September rate hike collapsed from 55% to 41%.
Now all eyes are on inflation. The consensus forecast for July CPI is around 3.4% year-over-year, with a core reading of 2.2%. However, there is a hidden risk here: the oil factor. In June, gasoline prices fell sharply, providing a disinflationary effect, but by July the fuel market became unstable again, which could distort the overall picture.
I see three scenarios for how events unfold:
• Below forecast. Bond yields will move lower, and the most sensitive to this will be the technology sector and cryptocurrencies — this will give Bitcoin a chance for a powerful surge.
• In line with expectations (around 3.4%). Short-term volatility without a change in the overall picture; the odds of a September hike will remain balanced.
• Acceleration to 3.5–3.6% and above. The market will return to tightening expectations, yields will rise, and both tech stocks and crypto assets will come under pressure.
The historical correlation here is clearly visible. In February, April, and July, when data came in below forecasts, markets rose: after the July report, the Nasdaq gained more than one percent, and Bitcoin climbed from $62,000–63,000 above $64,000. Conversely, on May 12, when inflation exceeded expectations, yields soared and cryptocurrencies came under severe pressure.
My base scenario is that the data will match expectations, but the market will read them negatively. Removing the threat of a rate hike will require sustained inflation declines in both August and September. One report alone will not be enough.
Oil, SpaceX, and Bitcoin: the balance of forces for the week
Middle East. Geopolitical tensions persist: Trump talks about negotiations, Iran denies them, and Saudi Arabia warns of the risk of new attacks. Oil has already reacted with gains — Brent returned to $83, WTI is consolidating above $75. On a pullback to $74, I am considering a long position with an eye on an 8–10% move.
SpaceX. Shares bounced sharply after a two-day decline, despite the release of about 911 million unlocked shares — more than the initial free float after the IPO. The reason is the pre-priced expectation of a sell-off, short covering, and a strong quarterly report with revenue of $7.8 billion. However, capital expenditures amounted to about $18.4 billion, free cash flow remains negative, and the space segment is unprofitable. The main stable cash flow is provided by Starlink. The unlock is not complete — the next tranche comes 70 days after the IPO. I am considering a short position with an eye on a 10–15% correction into the $108–114 zone.
Bitcoin. I interpret the current bounce as a false rally: liquidity accumulation above, the return of local confidence, and then a new wave of decline toward $60,000 and below under strong pressure. I have already fully closed my long from the $58,000 area and am looking for a point to short in the $65,000 region, expecting a trigger — a halt in momentum, the formation of resistance, and confirmation of seller pressure. From Monday through Wednesday, before the inflation data release, I forecast elevated volatility in both stocks and cryptocurrencies, with it being more pronounced in the equity market.
My conclusion: August 12 is not just another statistical release. It is a moment of truth for US monetary policy and, consequently, for risk appetite overall. Bitcoin is currently squeezed between macroeconomic pressure and accumulated liquidity. Until I see a sustained hold above $66,000–67,000, I will view any rise as an opportunity to enter a short position.