August 12: the day that will determine bitcoin's fate for the coming months
The release of July U.S. inflation statistics on August 12 will be a key trigger for the entire market. These numbers will determine whether the Fed decides to raise interest rates in September, and thus—whether Bitcoin can break through the psychologically important level of $70,000.
The labor market has cracked, but inflation is the ultimate judge
The latest employment data have already adjusted investor expectations. The July report showed a loss of 23,000 jobs, although the market had forecast growth. The unemployment rate, meanwhile, fell to 4.1%. However, the revision of May and June data looks far more alarming: the cumulative deterioration amounted to about 103,000 jobs. This is no longer a one-off glitch, but a sustained trend of a cooling labor market.
The probability of a September rate hike after this release collapsed from 55% to 41%. But the final chord belongs to inflation. The consensus forecast for July CPI is around 3.4% year-over-year, with a core reading of 2.2%. A particular risk is tied to oil: June's slowdown in gasoline prices has given way to July's instability in the fuel factor.
Three scenarios: from rally to collapse
I highlight three key scenarios depending on the report's numbers:
• Below forecast. Bond yields will move lower, and the technology sector and cryptocurrencies will benefit first. This is the most bullish scenario for Bitcoin.
• In line with expectations (~3.4%). Short-term volatility without a change in the overall picture. The odds of a September hike will remain balanced.
• Acceleration to 3.5–3.6% and above. The market will return to tightening expectations, yields will rise, and both tech stocks and cryptocurrencies will come under pressure.
The worst combination for the regulator is a weak labor market with high inflation. Raising rates under such conditions is dangerous for the economy, but ignoring price growth is impossible. The historical correlation here is obvious: in February, April, and July, data came in below forecasts and supported markets—Nasdaq gained more than a percent after the July report, and Bitcoin rose from $62,000–63,000 above $64,000. Conversely, on May 12, inflation exceeded expectations, triggering a rise in yields and pressure on crypto assets.
Balance of forces: oil, SpaceX, and Bitcoin
Oil. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have returned to the forefront. Brent is back at $83, WTI is consolidating above $75. On a pullback to $74, I am considering a long position, targeting a move of 8–10%.
SpaceX. Shares rebounded sharply after a two-day decline, despite the release of about 911 million unlocked shares—more than the initial free float after the IPO. The reason is pre-priced sell-off expectations, short covering, and a strong report with quarterly revenue of $7.8 billion. However, capital expenditures ($18.4 billion, of which $15.8 billion is for AI) leave free cash flow negative, and the space segment is unprofitable. Only Starlink provides stable cash flow. The unlock is not complete: the next tranche comes in 70 days. I see potential for a short position, targeting a 10–15% correction into the $108–114 zone.
Bitcoin. I interpret the current bounce as a false rally. Liquidity accumulation above, a return of local confidence, then—a new wave of decline toward $60,000 and below under strong pressure. I have already fully closed my long from $58,000 and am considering a short in the $65,000 area. The trigger is a halt in momentum, the formation of resistance, and confirmation of seller pressure. From Monday to Wednesday, before the inflation data release, I expect heightened volatility in both stocks and cryptocurrencies, with the stock market showing a more pronounced move.
My conclusion: August 12 is not just another statistic, but a moment of truth for all risk appetite. If the numbers come in below forecast, Bitcoin will have a real chance to attack $70,000. But if inflation accelerates, the bears will gain a powerful trump card, and a correction to $60,000 will become only a matter of time. Investors should prepare for sharp moves and avoid opening positions before the report's release.