August 12 — a fork in the road for bitcoin: the inflation report will decide the fate of the price above $70,000
The release of July consumer inflation statistics in the U.S., scheduled for August 12, will be a key trigger for the entire digital asset market. It is this data that will determine whether the Federal Reserve decides to raise the key interest rate as early as September, which, in turn, will open or close the door for Bitcoin to levels above $70,000.
The market is in a state of heightened uncertainty. The recent labor market report threw investors' expectations into disarray: instead of the expected job growth, the economy lost 23,000 positions in July, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%. However, the most alarming signal was the large-scale revision of data for May and June—a cumulative deterioration of about 103,000 jobs. This points not to a one-off fluctuation, but to a sustained cooling of the labor market. As a result, the probability of a September rate hike collapsed from 55% to 41%.
Three scenarios for the crypto market
The consensus forecast for July inflation is around 3.4% year-over-year, with a core reading of 2.2%. However, my calculations and analysis of current energy price dynamics compel me to consider several alternative paths for how events may unfold:
• A reading below the forecast. Bond yields will move lower, which would be a powerful catalyst for the technology sector and cryptocurrencies. In this scenario, Bitcoin would get a chance for a decisive breakout.
• A match with expectations (around 3.4%). The market will likely react with short-term volatility without changing the overall picture. The odds of a rate hike will remain balanced, preserving the status quo.
• An acceleration to 3.5–3.6% or higher. This is the worst-case scenario for risky assets. Expectations of policy tightening will return, yields will rise, and both tech giants and cryptocurrencies will come under pressure.
Of particular danger to the regulator is the combination of a weak labor market and high inflation—a stagflationary scenario in which raising rates becomes an extremely risky move, while ignoring price growth becomes impossible. The historical correlation here is obvious: in February, April, and July, data came in below forecasts and supported markets (after the July report, the Nasdaq rose by more than a percent, and Bitcoin climbed from $62,000–63,000 to above $64,000). Conversely, on May 12, when inflation exceeded expectations, yields soared, putting pressure on cryptocurrencies.
Oil, SpaceX, and Bitcoin's technical picture
The oil factor is adding fuel to the fire. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have flared up again: Brent has returned to $83, while WTI is consolidating above $75. The sharp June slowdown in gasoline prices provided a favorable base effect, but by July, the fuel factor became unstable again, increasing the risks of an inflation surprise.
As for Bitcoin, I view the current bounce as a false rally. Liquidity accumulation above, the return of local confidence, and then a new wave of decline toward $60,000 and lower—that is my base scenario if strong pressure persists. I have already fully closed my long from the $58,000 area and am now eyeing a short in the $65,000 region, waiting for confirmation—a halt in momentum, the formation of resistance, and the entrenchment of seller pressure.
My conclusion: until the data release on August 12, the market will be hostage to macroeconomic statistics. Heightened volatility is guaranteed in both stocks and cryptocurrencies, with it being more pronounced in the equity market. Investors should prepare for sharp moves and avoid opening large positions until a clear signal emerges.