US inflation will decide bitcoin's fate: why August 12 is the key date of the month
The main event for global markets, including the cryptocurrency sector, in the coming week will be the release of the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the United States, scheduled for August 12. This data will essentially determine the trajectory of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy in the coming months, and it is on this data that whether Bitcoin can hold above the $70,000 mark or whether we face another wave of correction depends.
The labor market has cracked
The key trigger for revising expectations is the recent employment statistics. The July report showed an unexpected cooling: the economy lost 23,000 jobs instead of the expected gain, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%. However, a more alarming signal was the massive downward revision of data for May and June — a total of 103,000 jobs. This is no longer a one-off glitch, but a sustained trend toward a weakening labor market, which radically changes the picture for the Fed.
The probability of a rate hike at the September meeting collapsed from 55% to 41% after the release of this data. The market is clearly pricing in a pause, but the final verdict will be delivered precisely after the CPI release.
Three scenarios for Bitcoin
The consensus forecast for July inflation is around 3.4% year-over-year, with a core reading of 2.2%. Based on these figures, I identify three possible scenarios for how events may unfold.
Scenario below forecast. If inflation turns out weaker than expected, bond yields will move lower. In this case, the technology sector and cryptocurrencies, which are traditionally most sensitive to liquidity tightening, will receive the greatest positive momentum.
Scenario in line with expectations (around 3.4%). The market will likely react with short-term volatility without changing the overall picture. The chances of a September hike will remain balanced, and Bitcoin will most likely stay within its current range.
Scenario of acceleration to 3.5–3.6% and above. This would be a "hawkish" shock. Yields would surge, putting both technology stocks and cryptocurrencies under pressure. In that case, Bitcoin could test support around $60,000 and lower.
The oil factor and historical parallels
The oil factor deserves special attention. The June slowdown in gasoline prices provided a temporary respite, but by July the fuel factor became unstable again, adding risks to the inflation forecast. The historical correlation here is obvious: when inflation data came in below forecasts (in February, April, July), markets received support — the Nasdaq rose, and Bitcoin climbed from $62,000–63,000 to $64,000. Conversely, exceeding expectations on May 12 triggered a rise in yields and pressure on cryptocurrencies.
In the base scenario, I expect the data to match forecasts, but the market will read it negatively. Removing the threat of a rate hike will require a sustained decline in inflation not only in August but also in September. Therefore, until Wednesday, one should prepare for heightened volatility — both in equity markets and in digital assets.
My comment: The market is currently in a state of extreme uncertainty, and it is precisely the inflation statistics that will serve as the catalyst setting the direction until the end of summer. For Bitcoin, the $65,000–66,000 levels remain a critical resistance zone: only a confident breakout above on positive data will open the path to new highs. Otherwise, I do not rule out a retest of $60,000, where a serious battle between buyers and sellers will take place.