The US inflation report will decide bitcoin's fate: why August 12 is the key date of the month
The release of July U.S. consumer price statistics, scheduled for August 12, will be a defining event for the entire financial market. These data will show whether the Federal Reserve will decide to raise the key interest rate as early as September, and whether Bitcoin can consolidate above the $70,000 mark against this backdrop.
The market is in a state of heightened uncertainty. Fresh employment data have significantly adjusted investor expectations: the U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, although the consensus forecast implied growth, while unemployment fell to 4.1%. However, the key signal was the revision of data for May and June — together, these months worsened the picture by approximately 103,000 jobs. This is not a one-off glitch but a sustained cooling of the labor market. As a result, the probability of a September rate hike has collapsed from 55% to 41%.
Three scenarios for the market
The consensus for July inflation stands at around 3.4% year-on-year with a core reading of 2.2%. However, there is an important nuance — the volatility of oil prices. In June, gasoline became cheaper, which supported the overall trend, but by July the fuel factor became unpredictable again.
I highlight three possible scenarios for how events may unfold:
• Data below forecasts. Bond yields will move lower, which will be a powerful catalyst for the technology sector and cryptocurrencies. High-risk assets will be the most sensitive.
• Matching expectations (around 3.4%). The market expects short-term volatility without a change in the overall picture, and the chances of a September rate hike will remain balanced.
• Acceleration to 3.5–3.6% and above. This will bring back expectations of policy tightening, yields will begin to rise, and technology stocks and cryptocurrencies will come under pressure.
For the regulator, the worst combination is a weak labor market with high inflation. Raising rates under such conditions is risky for the economy, but ignoring price growth is impossible. The historical correlation here is obvious: when data came in below forecasts (in February, April, and July), markets rose — the Nasdaq gained more than one percent, and Bitcoin climbed from $62,000–63,000 above $64,000. Conversely, on May 12, inflation exceeded expectations, which triggered a rise in yields and pressure on crypto assets.
Oil, SpaceX, and Bitcoin: the balance of power
On the geopolitical front, tensions persist. Iran denies the possibility of direct talks with the United States, while Tehran, together with Oman, is working on a plan for the phased opening of the Strait of Hormuz with the introduction of a transit fee. Washington opposes the expansion of Iranian control, which increases the risks of new attacks. Oil responded with gains: Brent returned to $83, WTI is consolidating above $75.
SpaceX shares rebounded sharply after a two-day decline, although about 911 million unlocked shares hit the market — more than the initial free float. The reason is the pre-priced expectation of a sell-off, short covering, and a strong report with quarterly revenue of $7.8 billion. However, capital expenditures amounted to approximately $18.4 billion, of which about $15.8 billion went to AI, free cash flow remains negative, and the space segment is unprofitable. Only Starlink provides stable cash flow. The unlock is not complete: the next tranche is scheduled 70 days after the IPO.
Regarding Bitcoin, I view the current bounce as a false rally. Accumulation of liquidity above, the return of local confidence, and then a new wave of decline toward $60,000 and lower under strong pressure — that is the base scenario. I have already fully closed my long from $58,000 and am eyeing a short in the $65,000 area. The trigger will be a halt in momentum and confirmation of seller pressure. From Monday through Wednesday, before the release of inflation data, I expect increased volatility in both stocks and cryptocurrencies, with it being more pronounced in the equity market.
My professional conclusion: August 12 is not just another piece of statistics but a moment of truth for the entire market. If inflation comes in below forecasts, Bitcoin will have a chance to surge toward $70,000. But if price pressure accelerates, a correction to $60,000 will become only a matter of time. Investors should prepare for sharp movements and avoid opening positions without a clear plan.