August 12: Why the US inflation report will be the key event of the month for bitcoin
The release of July U.S. consumer price statistics, scheduled for August 12, will be the determining factor for the further trajectory of bitcoin. This report will provide the final answer on whether the Federal Reserve will decide to raise interest rates in September. This decision will directly determine whether the leading cryptocurrency can hold above the $70,000 mark.
Fresh labor market data have already adjusted investor expectations. In July, the U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs instead of the expected gain, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%. However, the key signal was the revision of May and June data — the combined deterioration amounted to approximately 103,000 jobs. This is no longer a one-off glitch, but a sustained trend of labor market cooling, which has significantly reduced the likelihood of a September rate hike — from 55% to 41%.
Three scenarios for the market
The consensus forecast for July inflation is around 3.4% year-over-year, with a core reading of 2.2%. However, there are additional risks associated with oil price volatility. There are three main scenarios for how events may unfold:
• Data below forecasts. Bond yields will move lower, providing support to the technology sector and cryptocurrencies.
• In line with expectations (around 3.4%). Short-term volatility without changing the overall picture, with the chances of a rate hike remaining balanced.
• Acceleration to 3.5–3.6% and above. The market will return to expectations of policy tightening, yields will rise, and both technology stocks and digital assets will come under pressure.
The historical correlation is clear: when data came in below forecasts (February, April, July), markets received support — bitcoin rose from $62,000–63,000 to above $64,000. Conversely, exceeding expectations on May 12 led to higher yields and pressure on cryptocurrencies.
For bitcoin, the current bounce looks like a false breakout. I see liquidity accumulation above, a return of local confidence, and then a new wave of decline toward $60,000 and below under strong pressure. My short-term target is a short position in the $65,000 area, expecting resistance confirmation.
Oil and SpaceX: additional pressure factors
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to support oil prices: Brent has returned to $83, while WTI consolidates above $75. At the same time, SpaceX shares, despite a strong report with quarterly revenue of $7.8 billion, remain vulnerable — free cash flow is negative, and the space segment is unprofitable. The main stable cash flow comes from Starlink, but the lock-up of shares and the planned next tranche in 70 days create conditions for a 10–15% correction.
My verdict: August 12 will be a bifurcation point for the entire risk-asset market. Investors should prepare for heightened volatility in both stocks and cryptocurrencies, with it being especially pronounced in the futures market.