Crypto news

The release of July U.S. consumer price statistics on August 12 will be a key trigger for the market. This report is not just another macroeconomic formality—it will effectively decide whether we see bitcoin above $70,000 in the near term or face a deep correction.

At the center of attention is the July Consumer Price Index (CPI). The consensus forecast suggests growth of about 3.4% year-over-year, with a core reading of approximately 2.2%. However, the devil, as always, is in the details, and these very numbers will become the decisive argument for the Federal Reserve when making its rate decision in September.

The labor market has cracked

Recent employment data have already significantly adjusted expectations. In July, the U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs, although the market had expected growth. Unemployment meanwhile fell to 4.1%, but the main signal lies in the revision of previous months. The combined picture for May and June worsened by roughly 103,000 jobs. This is not a one-off glitch but a sustained cooling of the labor market.

The market reaction was immediate: the probability of a September rate hike collapsed from 55% to 41%. A weak labor market is an argument against tightening, but inflation is still above the 2% target. The Fed finds itself in a trap: raising rates is dangerous for the economy, while ignoring price growth is impossible.

Three scenarios for bitcoin

I see three main vectors for how events may unfold depending on the CPI figures:

• Below forecast. Bond yields will move lower, which would be a powerful catalyst for the technology sector and cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin would get a chance for a confident surge.

• Within expectations (around 3.4%). The market expects short-term volatility without a change in the overall picture. The odds of a September hike will remain balanced, and bitcoin will continue to consolidate.

• Acceleration to 3.5–3.6% and above. This is the worst-case scenario: yields will spike, putting both technology stocks and cryptocurrencies under pressure. In this case, bitcoin risks testing the $60,000 zone and below.

The historical correlation here is obvious. In February, April, and July, when data came in below forecasts, markets rose: after the July report, the Nasdaq gained more than a percent, and bitcoin climbed from $62,000–63,000 to above $64,000. In May, by contrast, inflation exceeded expectations, leading to higher yields and pressure on the crypto market.

Oil, SpaceX, and bitcoin: the balance of power

The oil factor deserves special attention. The June slowdown in gasoline prices provided a positive base, but by July the fuel factor became unstable again. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, where Iran and Oman are discussing a scheme to open the Strait of Hormuz while the U.S. opposes expanding Iranian control, have brought Brent back to around $83 and WTI above $75. Any spike in energy prices will immediately feed into inflation expectations.

As for bitcoin itself, I view the current bounce as a false rally. Liquidity accumulation from above, a return of local confidence, and then—a new wave of decline toward $60,000 and below under strong pressure. I have already fully closed my long position from the $58,000 area and am now eyeing a short in the $65,000 region. The trigger will be a halt in momentum, the formation of resistance, and confirmation of seller pressure.

From Monday through Wednesday, ahead of the inflation data release, I forecast elevated volatility in both stocks and cryptocurrencies, with it being more pronounced in the equity market. August 12 is not just a date on the calendar but a moment of truth for the entire spectrum of risk assets.

My professional view: the market is pricing in an overly optimistic scenario. Even if the numbers match expectations, removing the threat of a rate hike requires sustained inflation declines in both August and September. Until that happens, any bitcoin rise above $65,000 is an opportunity for hedging, not a buy signal.