July CPI will settle everything: why August 12 will be a decisive day for bitcoin
The release of U.S. inflation data for July, scheduled for August 12, will be a key trigger for the entire market. It is this report that will determine whether the Federal Reserve decides to raise interest rates in September. Directly dependent on this decision is whether Bitcoin can hold above the $70,000 mark or whether we will see another wave of correction.
The latest macroeconomic signals point to growing uncertainty. Fresh labor market data has already thrown investors' expectations into disarray. In July, the U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs, although the market had forecast growth. The unemployment rate, meanwhile, fell to 4.1%, but the key signal is the massive revision of previous data: figures for May and June were downgraded by a combined total of approximately 103,000 jobs. This is not a one-off glitch but a sustained trend of a cooling labor market. As a result, the probability of a September rate hike after this release collapsed from 55% to 41%.
Three scenarios for the market
The consensus forecast for July inflation is around 3.4% year-on-year, with a core reading of 2.2%. However, I see three fundamentally different paths for how events could unfold.
• Data below forecast. Bond yields will move lower, and the most sensitive to this will be the technology sector and cryptocurrencies. For Bitcoin, this will be a positive impulse capable of pushing the price to new local highs.
• Reading in line with expectations (around 3.4%). The market will likely react with short-term volatility without changing the overall picture. The odds of a September hike will remain balanced, and Bitcoin will continue trading in its usual range.
• Acceleration to 3.5–3.6% and above. This is the worst-case scenario for risk assets. Yields will begin to rise, and the first to come under pressure will be expensive technology stocks and cryptocurrencies. For Bitcoin, this will mean a test of the $60,000 level and below.
The historical correlation here is clear. In February, April, and July, when data came in below forecasts, markets received support: the Nasdaq gained more than a percent, and Bitcoin rose from $62,000–63,000 to above $64,000. Conversely, on May 12, when inflation exceeded expectations, we saw rising yields and powerful pressure on cryptocurrencies.
Oil and Bitcoin: the balance of power for the week
An additional factor of instability is the oil market. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have once again come to the forefront. Brent has returned to the $83 area, while WTI is consolidating above $75. On a pullback to $74, I am considering entering a long position with an eye on a move of 8–10%.
As for Bitcoin, I interpret the current bounce as a false rally. Accumulation of liquidity above, the return of local confidence, and then a new wave of decline toward $60,000 and below—this is the base-case scenario under strong pressure. I have already fully closed my long position from the $58,000 area and am now considering a short in the $65,000 region. The trigger will be a halt in momentum and confirmation of seller pressure. From Monday through Wednesday, right up until the inflation data release, I expect elevated volatility in both stocks and cryptocurrencies, with it being more pronounced in the equity market.
My conclusion: August 12 is not just another statistical release but a moment of truth for the entire risk-asset spectrum. If the figures diverge from the forecast by even 0.1–0.2%, the market will react immediately and harshly. Investors should determine their risk level in advance rather than making decisions at the moment of the release.