Crypto news

The release of July U.S. inflation statistics, scheduled for August 12, will be a key trigger for the entire financial market. These data will determine whether the Federal Reserve decides to raise interest rates in September. For Bitcoin, this report is a fundamental question: can the leading cryptocurrency hold above the $70,000 mark, or are we in for another wave of correction?

Last week, the market received an important signal: U.S. employment data came in significantly weaker than forecasts. In July, the economy lost 23,000 jobs, despite expectations of growth, while unemployment fell to 4.1%. However, the main concern lies in the revisions of previous months—May and June collectively worsened by approximately 103,000 jobs. This is not a one-off glitch but a sustained trend of a cooling labor market. As a result, the probability of a September rate hike plummeted from 55% to 41%.

Now, all eyes are on the Consumer Price Index. The consensus forecast is around 3.4% year-over-year, with a core reading of 2.2%. But there is also a hidden risk: the oil factor. In June, gasoline prices fell sharply, providing a temporary brake on inflation, but by July, the fuel component became unstable again, which could spring a surprise.

I see three scenarios for how events unfold. First—data below forecasts. Then bond yields will decline, and the most sensitive to this will be the technology sector and cryptocurrencies, which will receive a powerful growth impulse. Second—within expectations (around 3.4%). This means short-term volatility without changing the overall picture, and the chances of a September hike will remain balanced. Third—acceleration to 3.5–3.6% and above. In this case, the market will return to tightening expectations, yields will rise, and both tech giant stocks and cryptocurrencies will come under pressure.

The historical correlation here is clear. In February, April, and July, when inflation data came in below forecasts, markets rose: after the July report, the Nasdaq gained more than a percent, and Bitcoin climbed from $62,000–63,000 to above $64,000. Conversely, on May 12, when inflation exceeded expectations, yields soared, and cryptocurrencies came under severe pressure.

The worst combination for the regulator is a weak labor market coupled with high inflation. Raising rates under such conditions is dangerous for the economy, but ignoring rising prices is impossible. My base forecast: the data will match expectations, but the market will read them negatively, because removing the threat of a rate hike requires sustained inflation declines in both August and September.

Against this backdrop, I view the current Bitcoin rebound as a false rally. Liquidity accumulation at the top, a return of local confidence—and then a new wave of decline toward $60,000 and below under strong pressure. My strategy is to look for a point to open a short position in the $65,000 area, awaiting confirmation of seller pressure. From Monday through Wednesday, before the data release, volatility will be elevated in both stocks and cryptocurrencies, with the stock market showing it more strongly.

My professional view: August 12 is not just another piece of statistics, but a moment of truth for the entire risk-asset spectrum. If inflation surprises to the upside, Bitcoin could lose ground faster than many expect, since the market has already priced in a softening of Fed rhetoric. Investors should prepare for increased turbulence and avoid opening large positions until the data is released.