The US inflation report will decide bitcoin's fate: why August 12 is the key date of the month
The release of July U.S. inflation data, scheduled for August 12, will be a defining moment for the market. This report will show whether the Federal Reserve will decide to raise rates in September. The ability of Bitcoin to overcome the psychologically important level of $70,000 directly depends on this decision.
Ahead of this date, the market is in a state of heightened uncertainty. Fresh employment statistics have made significant adjustments to investor expectations. The U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, although the consensus forecast had predicted growth. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, but revisions to May and June data worsened the picture by about 103,000 jobs. This is not a one-off glitch, but a sustained trend of a cooling labor market.
The market reacted instantly: the probability of a September rate hike fell from about 55% to 41%. The consensus for July inflation is around 3.4% year-over-year, with a core reading of 2.2%. However, the main risk is tied to the oil factor: after gasoline prices slowed in June, the fuel component became unstable again in July.
Three scenarios for how events unfold
The first scenario is data coming in below forecasts. In this case, bond yields will move lower, providing strong support for the technology sector and cryptocurrencies. The second is a match with expectations (around 3.4%). This will cause short-term volatility without changing the overall picture, and the odds of a September hike will remain balanced. The third is inflation accelerating to 3.5–3.6% and higher. Then the market will return to expectations of tightening, yields will rise, and both technology stocks and digital assets will come under pressure.
The worst combination for the regulator is a weak labor market alongside high inflation. Raising rates under such conditions is dangerous for the economy, but ignoring rising prices is impossible. The historical correlation is clear: in February, April, and July, data came in below forecasts and supported markets — after the July report, the Nasdaq gained more than one percent, and Bitcoin rose from $62,000–63,000 to above $64,000. Conversely, on May 12, inflation exceeded expectations, leading to higher yields and pressure on cryptocurrencies.
The base forecast is a match with expectations, but the market may read it negatively. To remove the threat of a rate hike, inflation needs to decline in both August and September.
Oil, SpaceX, and Bitcoin: the balance of power
On the geopolitical front, tensions remain. Negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz have reached a deadlock: Iran demands the lifting of sanctions, while Washington insists on the reverse sequence. Brent crude has returned to the $83 area, while WTI is consolidating above $75. On a pullback to $74, I am considering a long position with a target of an 8–10% move.
SpaceX shares rebounded sharply after a two-day decline, even though about 911 million unlocked shares hit the market — more than the initial free float after the IPO. The reason is a pre-priced expectation of a sell-off, short covering, and a strong report with quarterly revenue of $7.8 billion. However, capital expenditures amounted to about $18.4 billion, of which roughly $15.8 billion went to AI, and free cash flow remains negative. The unlock is not complete: the next tranche is scheduled in 70 days. The idea is a short position targeting a 10–15% correction into the $108–114 zone.
As for Bitcoin, I interpret the current bounce as a false rally: liquidity accumulation above, a return of local confidence, then a new wave of decline toward $60,000 and lower under strong pressure. I have already fully closed my long position from the $58,000 area and am looking for a short entry around $65,000. The trigger is a halt in momentum, the formation of resistance, and confirmation of seller pressure. From Monday to Wednesday, before the inflation data release, I expect elevated volatility in both stocks and cryptocurrencies, with it being more pronounced in the equity market.
My conclusion: August 12 is not just another statistical release, but a moment of truth for the entire spectrum of risky assets. If inflation surprises to the upside, Bitcoin could lose ground faster than many expect. Investors should prepare for sharp moves and avoid opening large positions before the data is released.