August 12 — the day that will decide bitcoin's fate: what to expect from US inflation data
This week, the cryptocurrency market is holding its breath ahead of a key macroeconomic release. US inflation data for July, due out on August 12, will be the main trigger for bitcoin. This report will directly determine whether the Federal Reserve decides to raise interest rates in September, and whether the leading cryptocurrency can break through the psychologically important level of $70,000.
Labor market cools, rates in question
The latest employment statistics have significantly adjusted investor expectations. In July, the US economy lost 23,000 jobs, although the market had forecast growth. The unemployment rate, meanwhile, fell to 4.1%. But the key signal is the downward revision of May and June data: the cumulative adjustment amounted to about 103,000 jobs. This is no longer a one-off glitch, but a sustained trend of a cooling labor market. The probability of a September rate hike after this release fell from roughly 55% to 41%.
The consensus forecast for July inflation is around 3.4% year-on-year, with a core reading of 2.2%. However, there is a significant risk related to oil: the sharp slowdown in gasoline prices in June has given way to a return of volatility in July, which could push the figure higher.
Three scenarios for the market
I see three possible outcomes. If the data comes in below forecasts, bond yields will decline, which would be a powerful catalyst for the technology sector and cryptocurrencies. If it matches expectations, we will see short-term volatility without a change in the overall picture, and the chances of a rate hike will remain balanced. But the most dangerous scenario is an acceleration of inflation to 3.5–3.6% or higher. Then the market would return to expectations of tightening, yields would rise, and all risk assets, including bitcoin, would come under pressure.
The historical correlation here is obvious: weak inflation data in February, April, and July supported markets, while the overshoot of forecasts on May 12 led to rising yields and pressure on cryptocurrencies. Now, to remove the threat of a rate hike, sustained inflation declines are needed in both August and September.
Oil, SpaceX, and the balance of power
The geopolitical backdrop is also adding tension. Negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz have reached a deadlock, and Brent crude has returned to $83, while WTI is consolidating above $75. Against this backdrop, SpaceX shares showed a sharp rebound after publishing a strong quarterly report with revenue of $7.8 billion, although free cash flow remains negative due to massive capital expenditures on AI projects.
As for bitcoin, I view the current rebound as a false rally. Accumulation of liquidity at the top, a return of local confidence, and then a new wave of decline toward $60,000 and below — that is my base scenario. The $65,000 zone looks attractive for opening short positions, but the final signal will come precisely from the market's reaction to the inflation data on Wednesday.
My conclusion: August 12 will be a bifurcation point for bitcoin. If inflation surprises to the downside, we could see a rapid surge toward $70,000. But with any negative surprise, a correction to $60,000 and below will become only a matter of time. Investors should prepare for heightened volatility and avoid opening large positions until the data is published.