Crypto news

The release of July U.S. inflation data, scheduled for August 12, will be a key event for the digital asset market. It is this report, not individual official statements, that will determine whether Bitcoin can break through the psychologically important level of $70,000 and hold above it in the medium term.

The focus is on fresh consumer price statistics, which will serve as the final argument for the Federal Reserve in deciding on the interest rate in September. The market is in a state of uncertainty: recent employment data has adjusted expectations, but it is the inflation report that will settle all the details.

The labor market has cracked

The July employment report came in weaker than forecasts: the economy lost 23,000 jobs instead of the expected gain, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%. However, the most alarming signal was the revision of May and June data—the cumulative deterioration amounted to about 103,000 jobs. This is not a one-off glitch, but a sustained trend of labor market cooling.

The market reaction was swift: the probability of a September rate hike fell from 55% to 41%. Traders are beginning to price in a softer monetary policy, which is traditionally positive for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

Three scenarios for Bitcoin

The consensus forecast for July inflation is around 3.4% year-over-year, with a core reading of 2.2%. I highlight three possible scenarios for how events may unfold:

• Data below forecasts. Bond yields will move lower, providing strong support for the technology sector and cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin will get a chance for a rapid surge above $70,000.

• Matching expectations (around 3.4%). The market will remain in a state of short-term volatility without a change in the overall picture. The odds of a September rate hike will stay balanced, preserving the current trading range.

• Acceleration to 3.5–3.6% and above. This would be a negative signal: yields will rise, putting pressure on expensive tech stocks and cryptocurrencies. In this case, Bitcoin could test the $60,000 zone and lower.

The historical correlation is obvious: when inflation data came in below forecasts, markets rose—Nasdaq gained more than a percent, and Bitcoin jumped from $62,000–63,000 to $64,000 and higher. Conversely, exceeding expectations on May 12 led to rising yields and strong pressure on the crypto market.

The most difficult situation for the regulator is a combination of a weak labor market with high inflation. Raising rates under such conditions is dangerous for the economy, but ignoring rising prices is impossible. Current dynamics indicate that the market will be extremely sensitive to any deviations from the forecast.

Oil, SpaceX, and Bitcoin: the balance of power

The geopolitical factor also plays a role. The situation in the Middle East remains tense: negotiations between the U.S. and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz have reached a deadlock, and Saudi Arabia warns of the risk of new attacks. Brent crude has returned to $83, WTI is consolidating above $75—this adds inflationary pressure.

As for Bitcoin, I view the current bounce as a false signal. Accumulation of liquidity from above, a return of local confidence, and then a new wave of decline toward $60,000 and below is the most likely scenario under strong pressure. My strategy is to open a short position in the $65,000 zone, expecting confirmation of seller resistance.

Until the inflation data release on Wednesday, the market will be characterized by heightened volatility in both stocks and cryptocurrencies, with fluctuations in the stock market being more pronounced.

My verdict: August 12 is not just another statistical publication, but a moment of truth for the entire spectrum of risk assets. If inflation comes in below expectations, Bitcoin will get fuel for a surge toward $70,000. But with accelerating price pressure, I do not rule out a deep correction. Investors should determine entry and exit levels in advance to avoid being caught off guard.