August 12 — the day that will decide bitcoin's fate: why the US inflation report will become the month's key trigger
The release of U.S. inflation data for July, scheduled for August 12, will be the main event of the month for the cryptocurrency market. This report will determine whether the Federal Reserve decides to raise interest rates in September, which will directly impact Bitcoin's ability to break through the psychologically important level of $70,000.
Ahead of this date, the market is in a state of heightened uncertainty. Recent labor market statistics have made significant adjustments to investor expectations. In July, the U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs, although analysts had forecast growth, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%. However, the key signal was the revision of data for May and June: the combined deterioration amounted to about 103,000 jobs. This points not to a one-off glitch, but to a sustained trend of cooling in the labor market.
Following the release of this data, the probability of a September rate hike fell sharply—from 55% to 41%. Now all eyes are on the inflation report. The consensus forecast suggests consumer prices rising 3.4% year-over-year, with a core reading of around 2.2%. However, there is a serious risk tied to the oil factor: the sharp slowdown in gasoline prices in June provided temporary relief, but by July the fuel component became unstable again.
Three scenarios for how events unfold
I see three possible scenarios for the market's reaction to the August 12 report. The first is that the data comes in below forecasts. In this case, bond yields will move lower, which would be a powerful catalyst for the technology sector and cryptocurrencies. The second is that the figures match expectations (around 3.4%). Then we will see short-term volatility without a change in the overall picture, and the odds of a September hike will remain balanced.
The third and most dangerous scenario is an acceleration of inflation to 3.5–3.6% or higher. This would bring the market back to expectations of policy tightening, trigger a rise in yields, and put pressure on expensive assets, including Bitcoin. The worst combination for the regulator would be a weak labor market combined with high inflation: raising rates under such conditions is risky for the economy, but ignoring rising prices is impossible.
The historical correlation here is clear. In February, April, and July, data came in below forecasts, which supported markets—after the July report, the Nasdaq gained more than a percent, and Bitcoin rose from $62,000–63,000 to above $64,000. Conversely, on May 12, when inflation exceeded expectations, yields rose and cryptocurrencies came under pressure. My base scenario is that the data will match forecasts, but the market will perceive it negatively, since removing the threat of a rate hike requires sustained inflation declines in both August and September.
Oil, SpaceX, and Bitcoin: the balance of forces for the week
Middle East. Geopolitical tensions continue to support oil prices. Brent has returned to the $83 area, while WTI is consolidating above $75. On a pullback to $74, I am considering opening a long position, targeting a move of 8–10%.
SpaceX. The company's shares rebounded sharply after a two-day decline, despite the release of about 911 million unlocked shares—exceeding the initial free float after the IPO. The rebound was driven by the already priced-in expectation of the sell-off, short covering, and a strong report with quarterly revenue of $7.8 billion. However, capital expenditures amounted to about $18.4 billion, of which roughly $15.8 billion went to AI, free cash flow remains negative, and the space segment is unprofitable. The unlock is not complete: the next tranche is scheduled in 70 days. I am considering a short position, targeting a 10–15% correction into the $108–114 zone.
Bitcoin. I interpret the current bounce as a false rally: liquidity accumulation above, a return of local confidence, then a new wave of decline toward $60,000 and lower under strong pressure. I have already fully closed my long position from the $58,000 area and am looking for a point to short in the $65,000 zone, awaiting a trigger—a halt in momentum, the formation of resistance, and confirmation of seller pressure. From Monday through Wednesday, ahead of the inflation data release, I expect elevated volatility in both stocks and cryptocurrencies, with it being more pronounced in the equity market.
My professional conclusion: August 12 is not just another statistical release, but a moment of truth for the entire spectrum of risky assets. If inflation surprises to the upside, Bitcoin could lose support and fall to June lows. Investors should prepare for sharp moves and avoid opening large positions before the data is released.