August 12 — the day that will decide bitcoin's fate: why the US inflation report will become a trigger for the market
The release of U.S. inflation data for July, scheduled for August 12, is not just another statistical summary. It is a moment of truth for the entire digital asset market. This report will be the key factor determining whether the Federal Reserve decides to raise rates as early as September. Directly dependent on this decision is whether Bitcoin can overcome the psychologically important level of $70,000, or whether we will see a new wave of correction.
The labor market has cracked, but inflation is the main trump card
Recent employment data has already thrown investor expectations into disarray. In July, the U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs, although the market had forecast growth. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, but the main signal lies in the revision of previous months. The cumulative adjustment for May and June worsened the figures by approximately 103,000 jobs. This is not a one-off glitch, but a steady cooling of the labor market. The probability of a September rate hike after this release fell from 55% to 41%.
Now all attention is focused on inflation. The consensus forecast for the July report is around 3.4% year-over-year, with a core figure of approximately 2.2%. But there is also a hidden risk—the oil factor. In June, gasoline prices declined, providing a temporary brake on inflation, but by July, the fuel component became unstable again, which could deliver an unpleasant surprise.
Three scenarios: from rally to collapse
I highlight three possible developments, each of which would radically change the balance of power in the market:
• Data below forecasts. Bond yields will move lower, and the technology sector and cryptocurrencies will benefit first. This is the most bullish scenario for Bitcoin.
• Within expectations (around 3.4%). Short-term volatility without a change in the overall picture. The chances of a September hike will remain balanced, and the market will consolidate.
• Acceleration to 3.5–3.6% and above. The market will instantly return to tightening expectations. Yields will rise, and expensive assets, including tech stocks and cryptocurrencies, will come under pressure.
The most dangerous combination for the regulator is a weak labor market combined with high inflation. Raising rates in such a situation is risky for the economy, but ignoring rising prices is impossible. The historical correlation here is obvious: when inflation data came in below forecasts, markets rose, and Bitcoin showed a confident climb. Cases of exceeding expectations, on the contrary, provoked rising yields and pressure on digital assets.
Oil, SpaceX, and Bitcoin: what else is driving the market
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to fuel oil prices. Brent has returned to $83, while WTI is consolidating above $75. Any disruption in negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a new price spike, adding inflationary pressure.
The situation around SpaceX deserves special attention. The company's shares rebounded sharply after a two-day decline, despite the release of about 911 million unlocked shares to the market. The reason is a strong quarterly report with revenue of $7.8 billion and short covering. However, capital expenditures of $18.4 billion and a loss-making space segment leave a negative backdrop. I expect a correction of 10–15% into the $108–114 zone in the medium term.
As for Bitcoin, I view the current bounce as a false rally. Accumulation of liquidity above, the return of local confidence, and then a new wave of decline toward $60,000 and below—that is my base scenario. The $65,000 zone looks attractive for opening short positions, especially with confirmation of seller pressure. Until the inflation data is released, volatility will be elevated in both the stock and cryptocurrency markets.
My verdict: August 12 will be a turning point. If inflation comes in below expectations, Bitcoin will have a real chance to break toward $70,000. But if price pressure accelerates—prepare for a deep correction. Investors should refrain from aggressive actions until the report is published and closely monitor the reaction of Treasury yields.