Analysts sharply raised the target for Zhipu's stock: what is behind the 37% rise?
China's AI sector is undergoing a tectonic shift. Leading global investment banks are revising their assessments, and the main beneficiary of this revision is the startup Zhipu, whose shares have surged 37% over the past five trading sessions. I have carefully studied the situation, and here is what is really happening.
The key catalyst is a nearly 72% increase in the target price: from 990 to 1700 Hong Kong dollars (HKD). The reasons for this optimism are not just a speculative impulse, but structural changes: expanded access to computing resources for training and deploying models, as well as the successful completion of another funding round.
From Price War to Monetizing Intelligence
Just a few months ago, the dominant narrative was a race to the bottom: it was believed that a multitude of open-source models would lead to their consolidation and a collapse in prices. Now that scenario is outdated. China's large AI model industry is forming a healthier commercial model, where the winner is not the cheapest model, but the smartest one. This is a shift from price competition to monetization through model intelligence.
If this trend takes hold, investors will have to completely reassess the entire industry. Zhipu, founded in 2019 and known for its GLM series of large language models, has already raised $4 billion this year through a secondary share placement in Hong Kong. And this is not an isolated case.
MiniMax and Alibaba: Different Assessments, One Direction
The same report also mentions other players. For MiniMax, analysts maintained a "constructive" outlook but lowered the target price to 900 HKD, expecting the greatest growth in later stages rather than in the near future. At the same time, MiniMax shares gained 4.8% in a single day. Alibaba also received a positive assessment thanks to its advantages in end-to-end AI, computing power, and growth in cloud business margins.
The market context confirms the overall sentiment: the Hang Seng Index opened up 0.53%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 0.85%. Zhipu's five-day stock rally shows that the market is already betting on this new paradigm.
My view: The shift from price competition to monetizing intelligence is a sign of a mature market. But MiniMax's cautious forecasts serve as a reminder: not all companies will be able to convert their models into stable revenue at the same pace. Investors should closely watch which Chinese AI developers can not only create a smart model but also build a sustainable business model around it.