Crypto news

The cryptocurrency market is holding its breath in anticipation. August 12 will be a key date not only for traditional assets, but also for bitcoin. That is when July U.S. inflation data will be published — statistics that will essentially determine the trajectory of the Fed's interest rate policy in the coming months. The question is stark: will the leading cryptocurrency manage to hold above $70,000, or are we in for another wave of correction?

Fresh labor market data has already adjusted investor expectations. In July, the U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs, although the market had forecast growth. The unemployment rate meanwhile fell to 4.1%, but the key signal was the revision of May and June data — the combined deterioration amounted to about 103,000 jobs. This is not a one-off glitch, but a sustained cooling of the labor market. The probability of a September rate hike after this release dropped from 55% to 41%, which has already impacted risk appetite.

Now all attention is focused on inflation. The consensus forecast for July CPI is around 3.4% year-over-year, with a core reading of 2.2%. However, there is a factor of uncertainty — oil. In June, gasoline prices fell sharply, providing a disinflationary effect, but by July the fuel factor became unstable again, adding risks.

I see three scenarios for how events may unfold. The first — data comes in below forecasts. In this case, bond yields will decline, and the technology sector and cryptocurrencies will see the most positive impact. The second — the reading matches expectations (around 3.4%). Then the market faces short-term volatility without a change in the overall picture, and the chances of a September hike remain balanced. The third — acceleration to 3.5–3.6% or higher. This would bring expectations of tightening back to the market, yields would rise, and expensive assets, including bitcoin, would come under pressure.

The historical correlation here is obvious. In February, April, and July, when inflation came in below forecasts, markets rose: the Nasdaq gained more than a percent, and bitcoin climbed from $62,000–63,000 to above $64,000. Conversely, on May 12, when inflation exceeded expectations, yields spiked and cryptocurrencies came under strong pressure.

My base scenario is that the data will match expectations, but the market will perceive it negatively, because eliminating the threat of a rate hike requires inflation to decline in both August and September. From a technical standpoint, the current bitcoin bounce looks like a false rally: liquidity accumulation above, a return of local confidence, and then a new wave of decline toward $60,000 and lower under strong pressure. I have already closed my long from $58,000 and am considering a short in the $65,000 zone if resistance is confirmed.

My comment: The week will be extremely volatile, and this applies not only to cryptocurrencies but also to the stock market. However, for bitcoin, August 12 is not just a macroeconomic report, but a potential catalyst that will either confirm the bullish scenario or send the price searching for new local lows. Investors should prepare for sharp movements and avoid opening positions without a clear stop-loss.