The release of US inflation data on August 12 will be a key trigger for bitcoin.
Next Wednesday, August 12, the release of July consumer inflation statistics in the US will be the main event of the month for the digital asset market. These numbers will determine whether the Federal Reserve decides to raise the key rate as early as September. This decision directly determines whether bitcoin can hold above the $70,000 mark or whether we will see another wave of correction.
The labor market has cracked
The starting point for revising expectations was a recent statement by Fed Chair Jerome Powell that if inflation accelerates, a September rate hike is almost guaranteed. However, fresh employment data has made significant adjustments to this picture.
The US economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, although the market expected growth. The unemployment rate, meanwhile, fell to 4.1%. But a far more alarming signal was the revision of data for May and June—the combined deterioration amounted to about 103,000 jobs. This is not a one-off glitch, but a sustained cooling of the labor market. After the release, the probability of a September rate hike collapsed from 55% to 41%.
Three scenarios for the market
The consensus forecast for July inflation is around 3.4% year-over-year, with a core reading near 2.2%. However, there is also a serious risk related to oil: the sharp slowdown in gasoline prices in June provided a decline, but by July the fuel factor had again become unstable.
I identify three possible scenarios for how events may unfold:
• Below forecast. Bond yields will move lower, and the technology sector and cryptocurrencies will react most strongly—this is a bullish signal for bitcoin.
• In line with expectations (around 3.4%). Short-term volatility without a change in the overall picture, with chances of a September hike remaining balanced.
• Acceleration to 3.5–3.6% and above. The market will return to tightening expectations, yields will rise, and both technology stocks and cryptocurrencies will come under pressure.
The worst combination for the regulator is a weak labor market combined with high inflation. Raising the rate under such conditions is dangerous for the economy, but ignoring price growth is impossible. The historical correlation is clearly visible: in February, April, and July, data came in below forecast and supported markets (after the July report, Nasdaq gained more than a percent, and bitcoin rose from $62,000–63,000 to above $64,000). But on May 12, inflation exceeded expectations, which led to rising yields and pressure on cryptocurrencies.
Oil, SpaceX, and the balance of power
The geopolitical backdrop is also adding tension. Iran continues to work with Oman on a plan for the phased opening of the Strait of Hormuz, but the US opposes expanding Iranian control over shipping. Oil has already responded with gains: Brent has returned to the $83 area, while WTI is consolidating above $75.
In the stock market, the sharp rebound in SpaceX shares after a two-day decline stands out. The reason is pre-priced expectations of a sell-off, short covering, and a strong report with quarterly revenue of $7.8 billion. However, capital expenditures amounted to about $18.4 billion, of which roughly $15.8 billion went to AI, free cash flow remains negative, and the space segment is unprofitable. The main stable cash flow is provided by Starlink. The unlock is not yet complete: the next tranche is scheduled 70 days after the IPO.
As for bitcoin, I view the current rebound as a false rally. Accumulation of liquidity above, the return of local confidence, and then a new wave of decline toward $60,000 and below under strong pressure—this is a quite realistic scenario. From Monday through Wednesday, before the inflation data release, elevated volatility should be expected in both stocks and cryptocurrencies, with it being more pronounced in the stock market.
My professional view: if the inflation data matches expectations, the market may read it negatively, since eliminating the threat of a rate hike requires sustained price declines in both August and September. Bitcoin remains in a zone of uncertainty, and only a breakout of the $65,000 level followed by confirmation will provide a signal for a trend reversal.