August 12 — the day that will decide bitcoin's fate: why the US inflation report will become a trigger for the market
The release of U.S. inflation data for July, scheduled for August 12, will be the key event of the month for the cryptocurrency market. This report will determine whether the Federal Reserve decides to raise interest rates in September — a decision that directly affects whether Bitcoin can break through the psychologically important level of $70,000.
Ahead of this date, the market is in a state of heightened nervousness. Fresh employment data has adjusted investor expectations, but it is the consumer price statistics that will settle the matter. The weak labor market report has already significantly impacted sentiment, but the final verdict on monetary policy will only be delivered after the July figures are published.
Why the August 12 report will be the main event of the month
The starting point for analysis is recent statements by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh: if inflation accelerates, a rate hike as early as September is almost guaranteed. However, the latest employment statistics have turned the picture upside down. In July, the U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs, while the market had expected growth, and unemployment fell to 4.1%. The key signal was the revision of previous data: figures for May and June were collectively downgraded by approximately 103,000 jobs. This points not to a one-off glitch, but to a sustained cooling of the labor market. The probability of a September rate hike after this release dropped from 55% to 41%.
The consensus forecast for July inflation is around 3.4% year-over-year, with a core reading of about 2.2%. The main risk is tied to oil: a sharp slowdown in June drove gasoline prices down, but by July the fuel factor had become unstable again.
I highlight three scenarios for how events may unfold:
• Below forecast. Bond yields decline, with the technology sector and cryptocurrencies reacting most strongly.
• In line with expectations (around 3.4%). Short-term volatility without a change in the overall picture, with chances of a September hike remaining balanced.
• Acceleration to 3.5–3.6% and higher. The market returns to expectations of tightening, yields rise, and expensive tech stocks and cryptocurrencies come under pressure.
The worst combination for the regulator is a weak labor market alongside high inflation: raising rates is dangerous for the economy, but ignoring price growth is impossible. The historical correlation is clear: in February, April, and July, data came in below forecast and supported markets (after the July report, the Nasdaq gained more than a percent, and Bitcoin rose from $62,000–63,000 to above $64,000), while on May 12 inflation exceeded expectations, leading to higher yields and pressure on cryptocurrencies.
My baseline forecast: the data will match expectations, but the market will read it negatively, since inflation needs to decline in both August and September to remove the threat of a hike.
Oil, SpaceX, and Bitcoin: the balance of forces for the week
Middle East. Trump continues to talk about negotiations, Iran denies them. Tehran is working with Oman on a plan for the phased opening of the Strait of Hormuz with a transit fee, but the U.S. opposes expanding Iranian control over shipping. Industry representatives consider the scheme nearly unworkable in its current form: Iran demands that sanctions be lifted and assets unfrozen first, while Washington insists on the reverse sequence. Saudi Arabia warns of the risk of new attacks.
Oil reacted with gains: Brent returned to the $83 area, WTI consolidates above $75. On a pullback to $74, I plan a long position targeting an 8–10% move.
SpaceX. Shares rebounded sharply after a two-day decline, although about 911 million unlocked shares hit the market — more than the initial free float after the IPO. I attribute the rebound to the pre-priced expectation of selling, short covering, and a strong report with quarterly revenue of $7.8 billion. At the same time, capital expenditures amounted to roughly $18.4 billion, of which about $15.8 billion went to AI, free cash flow remains negative, the space segment is unprofitable, and Starlink provides the main stable cash flow. The unlock is not complete: the next tranche is scheduled 70 days after the IPO. My idea is a short position targeting a 10–15% correction into the $108–114 zone.
Bitcoin. I interpret the current bounce as a false rally: liquidity accumulation above, a return of local confidence, then a new wave of decline toward $60,000 and below under strong pressure. I have already fully closed my long from the $58,000 area and am looking for a short entry point around $65,000, waiting for a trigger — a halt in momentum, the formation of resistance, and confirmation of seller pressure. From Monday through Wednesday, before the inflation data release, I forecast elevated volatility in both stocks and cryptocurrencies, with the stock market showing more pronounced moves.
My conclusion: August 12 is not just a date on the calendar, but a moment of truth for the entire spectrum of risky assets. If inflation surprises to the upside, Bitcoin could lose the $60,000 support faster than many expect. Investors should prepare for sharp movements and review their stop-loss levels before the report is published.