Inflation trigger: why the August 12 report will determine bitcoin's fate in September
August 12 is a date that could become a turning point for the entire crypto market. The release of July U.S. inflation statistics could either open the door for bitcoin to reach $70,000 or push it back to new lows. This report will be the key argument for the Federal Reserve when deciding on a rate hike in September.
Fresh labor market data has already adjusted investor expectations. In July, the U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs instead of the expected gain, while unemployment fell to 4.1%. However, the revision of previous months looks far more alarming: the combined figures for May and June were downgraded by approximately 103,000 jobs. This is not a one-off glitch but a sustained trend of a cooling labor market. After such statistics, the probability of a September rate hike dropped from 55% to 41%.
Now all attention is focused on inflation. The consensus forecast for the July consumer price index is around 3.4% year-over-year, with a core reading of 2.2%. The main risk factor is oil. The June slowdown in gasoline prices provided a temporary decline in inflation, but by July the fuel factor became unstable again.
Three scenarios for the market
My analysis highlights three possible outcomes. If the data comes in below expectations, bond yields will move lower, which would be a powerful catalyst for the tech sector and cryptocurrencies. Within expectations (around 3.4%), the market faces short-term volatility without a change in the overall picture. But the most dangerous scenario is an acceleration of inflation to 3.5–3.6% and above. In that case, yields will rise, and pressure on risk assets, including bitcoin, will become critical.
The historical correlation here is obvious. In February, April, and July, weak inflation data supported markets: the Nasdaq gained more than one percent, and bitcoin rose from $62,000–63,000 above $64,000. Conversely, on May 12, when inflation exceeded expectations, there was a rise in yields and a collapse in cryptocurrencies.
For the Fed, the worst combination is a weak labor market with high inflation. Raising rates under such conditions is dangerous for the economy, but ignoring price growth is impossible. My base forecast: the data will match expectations, but the market will read it negatively, because removing the threat of a rate hike requires inflation to decline in both August and September.
Oil, SpaceX, and bitcoin
The geopolitical backdrop adds tension. Iran and Oman are discussing a plan for the phased opening of the Strait of Hormuz, but Washington opposes expanding Iranian control over shipping. Oil has already reacted: Brent returned to $83, WTI is consolidating above $75. On a pullback to $74, I am considering a long position with a target of an 8–10% move.
SpaceX deserves special attention. The stock bounced sharply after a two-day decline, even though about 911 million unlocked shares hit the market—more than the initial free float after the IPO. The reason for the bounce is the pre-priced expectation of selling, short covering, and a strong report with quarterly revenue of $7.8 billion. However, capital expenditures of $18.4 billion, of which $15.8 billion went to AI, leave free cash flow negative. The space segment is unprofitable, and only Starlink provides stable cash flow. The next tranche of unlocks is scheduled in 70 days, so I am considering a short position with a target of a 10–15% correction into the $108–114 zone.
As for bitcoin, I interpret the current bounce as a false rally. Liquidity accumulation at the top, a return of local confidence, and then a new wave of decline toward $60,000 and below under strong pressure. I have already fully closed my long position from the $58,000 area and am looking for a point to short in the $65,000 zone. The trigger will be a halt in momentum, the formation of resistance, and confirmation of seller pressure. From Monday to Wednesday, before the inflation data release, I expect elevated volatility in both stocks and cryptocurrencies—with the stock market showing more pronounced moves.
My verdict: August 12 is not just another statistical release. It is a moment of truth for the entire risk asset spectrum. If inflation surprises to the upside, bitcoin could lose the $60,000 support faster than many expect. Investors should prepare for turbulence and avoid opening large positions until the picture becomes clearer.